SOUTH SUDAN 1.65M

Between April and July 2024, the peak of the lean season, the food security situation will deteriorate further in Upper Nile State with an estimated 541,000 people (66% of the state’s population) likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, of which 145,000 people will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, and 396,000 people will likely be in Crisis (I. [...] During the lean-season projection period from April and July 2024, the food security will deteriorate in the State, with an estimated 753,000 people (59% of the State’s population) likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, of which 253,000 people are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, and 500,000 people are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). [...] During the lean-season projection period from April and July 2024, the food security will deteriorate further in the State, with an estimated 1.13 million people (59% of the State’s population) likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, of which 425,000 people are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, and 661,000 people are likely to be in Crisis (. [...] The key drivers of this deterioration are the seasonal depletion of harvests, high food prices in markets that are sub-optimally operational because of the closure of trade routes between Sudan and South Sudan and the disruption of supply markets because of the conflict in Sudan, and the likelihood of continued influx of returnees and refugees from Sudan. [...] The purpose of the PiNHA analysis is to estimate the share of population that are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security due to the assistance they are receiving/will receive, and who would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity in absence of assistance.