Battery storage market and value chain assessment in South Africa - Synthesis Report (English)

Customized Energy Solutions (CES) for the World Bank. It is analyzed that the South African battery storage market can be expected to grow from 270 MWh in 2020 to 9,700 MWh in 2030 under the base-case scenario and 15,000 MWh under the best-case scenario. In both cases, the electric vehicle (EV) sector is expected to drive the bulk of this growth. From this study it is noted that Lithium-ion battery (LIB) chemistries will continue to be the dominant battery technology by 2030, with Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) expected to be the leading LIB chemistry, while vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are expected to gain a significant market share in the stationary energy storage space. South Africa and even more so the Southern Africa sub-region is well-endowed with many of the battery minerals that are required for LIB manufacture. Moreover, South Africa has some early-stage activities in the LIB value chain as well as a diversified automotive industry that is strongly dependent on exports that would eventually need to transition to the manufacturing of EVs, if it is to continue as a major exporter to its neighboring markets in the long-run. In addition, the clear global and, to a lesser extent, local trend towards renewable energy and electric mobility provides a strong incentive for South Africa to actively develop their local LIB and VRFB value chains. The primary objective of this report is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities in developing battery value chains in South Africa. For the purpose of this study, thorough research and analysis was conducted on different parts of the battery value chain across up-stream, mid-stream, and down-stream segments to map opportunities and assess strengths and weaknesses as it relates to South Africa’s battery market, the local economy, and the availability and access to natural resources.