The Taiwan Factor in the US’s Regional Posture

Introduction In light of the growing Chinese threat to Taiwan, the real question is whether current US policy will be able to deter an invasion and avoid a war in the Taiwan Strait simultaneously. It is instructive to look back a little in history when the Republic of China (ROC) was a permanent member of the UN Security Council and continued to be recognised as such even after the Nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 and claimed to represent the whole of China as part of the ROC, while enjoyed the US’s diplomatic recognition. A closer reading of the history of the US’s Taiwan policy, best exemplified by the term ‘strategic ambiguity,’ may give rise to a degree of scepticism. The issue today is whether this policy will work in the event of an extreme case scenario involving a Chinese military offensive in Taiwan. The current cross-Strait situation is a compelling moment for the US to take stock of its strategic ambiguity and examine whether it is sufficient to meet the challenge of Chinese intent and power projection over Taiwan. The US must also take a more explicit public stand that it cannot afford to lose Taiwan, essentially effecting a pivot of the US regional posture.