CANNABIS POLICY REFORM AND ORGANIZED CRIME - A MODEL AND REVIEW

Based on these overarching experiences documented so far in other contexts, it identifies four key sets of variables that determine the impact of legalization on organized crime: the type and degree of restrictiveness of the new regulations; various cultural, socio-economic and political factors; features of the criminal justice system; and the structure and nature of criminal organization in the. [...] The government has pivoted to touting the cannabis industry’s potential for investment and job creation, especially in impoverished growing areas, with President Cyril Ramaphosa devoting parts of both his 2022 and 2023 State of the Nation Addresses to the urgent efforts in place to finalize the regulatory framework to allow the commercialization of the hemp and cannabis industries. [...] The bill has repeatedly been sent back for revision, in part because it retains the criminalization of sale and distribution.11 At the initiative of the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, and in response to input from public hearings, the Portfolio Committee on Justice and Correctional Services decided in March 2022 to expand the scope of the bill to include: ‘commercial activities in. [...] The overall outcome is a considerable increase in quantity and an indeterminate impact on price, with the magnitude of the changes determined by the extent to which consumers and suppliers are induced to change their behaviour (as well as the elasticity of demand and supply respectively – that is, the slopes of the curves).55 Legalization affects both quantity and price. [...] The extent to which legalization shifts demand is a function of the extent to which the new regulatory system eases access, reduces stigma, widens the pool of consumers, and reduces uncertainty and risk in the purchase decision process.63 Constraints on consumers can take various forms and may on balance be justified, but they tend to have the effect of sustaining the illegal market.