Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2023-24 - Shaping Tomorrow: Reforms for Lasting Prosperity

Kazakhstan’s economic outlook for the next two years is one of steady growth, driven in part from its continued reliance on hydrocarbons and by stronger consumer spending. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 4.5-5 percent in 2025 as the expansion of production capacity in existing oilfields is set to boost exports and spur growth of the petrochemical industry in 2025 and beyond. Elevated inflation is expected to fall, but still remain above the central bank's target in 2024 and 2025. The current account is expected to remain in a deficit at 3.0 and 2.3 percent of GDP in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The deficit is expected to persist in 2024 and decline steadily, while inward foreign direct investment flows are projected to continue, largely destined to the mining sector. The draft budget plan for 2024-26 moves towards fiscal consolidation. The government is planning to gradually decrease the deficit in the medium term in line with the fiscal rule to preserve fiscal buffers. Government debt is sustainable, but debt servicing costs have been increasing, reflecting the reliance on domestic debt in a context of high domestic interest rates. Kazakhstan’s growth outlook faces several downside risks emanating from both domestic and external factors. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant tensions in and near the Black Sea could lead to further disruption of Kazakh oil exports via the Caspian pipeline, which would have severe economic and fiscal repercussions given the importance of the hydrocarbons sector. Any major unscheduled maintenance in the oil fields as well as unexpected delay in the development of the Tengiz oil field might curtail production and dampen economic growth. Unforeseen external pressures and volatility of the tenge could lead to higher inflation. Furthermore, given Kazakhstan's economic ties with Russia, the risk of secondary sanctions continues to be a concern, which would dent confidence, deter FDI, and undermine growth. The special section of this Economic Update examines Kazakhstan’s growth challenges and the underlying structural weaknesses and proposes reform priorities for long-term development. Between 2018-22, average GDP per capita growth was 1 percent, well below the average of 3.3 percent for upper middle-income countries. Delivering a better quality of life and higher incomes for citizens in a global context that is committed to decarbonization requires rethinking reform priorities.