Bottom Line
- February 24 marked two years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the start of a bloody war that changed the borders of Europe for the first time since World War II.
- Over the past two years, both sides have lost more than half a million people killed and wounded.
- To understand how this war will end, one needs to take a closer look at its root cause—the way Vladimir Putin understands Russian history.
The total wartime losses of Russia and Ukraine are difficult to estimate. Neither country publishes accurate
data, exaggerating the enemy's losses and downplaying their own. According to the
Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukraine allegedly lost 406,000 people killed and wounded, while
Russia’s official losses were last reported at the end of September 2022 at about 6,000. Ukrainian authorities put Russian losses at about
404,000 people, while the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are
classified. However, on February 25, President Volodymyr Zelensky
said that 31,000 Ukrainians were killed in the two years of war.
Independent assessments vary. According to
US officials, by December 2023, Russia's total losses amounted to about 315,000 people, which is about 85 percent of the Russian army as it stood at the start of the war. Ukrainian losses had been estimated at
200,000. Journalists from the Mediazona project and the BBC track social media to collect data on Russian military funerals and have been able to
verify the identities of about 45,000 military personnel, but, according to their
estimates, the actual death rate is at least twice as high.
Ukraine’s civilian population has suffered immensely from the war. According to the
United Nations, by the end of 2023, deaths among Ukrainian civilians exceeded 10,000 people, with about 19,000 people injured. The number of
Ukrainian refugees stood at 10 million, of which 6.3 million fled the country, while the rest were internally displaced.
The economic losses are no less catastrophic. The United Nations
reports that the Ukrainian economy lost about 30 percent of its gross domestic product in 2022 alone. The
World Bank estimates that the restoration of Ukraine's economy would require $486 billion. The Russian economy, on the other hand, contracted by 2.1 percent in 2022, but
bounced back in 2023 by 3.6 percent (most of the growth was driven by increased defense spending). Another loss for Russia was the
flight of approximately one million skilled workers who left the country as a result of the war.
After two years, the war has seemingly turned into a frustrating stalemate, grinding away lives and resources in both countries. While many experts and observers have done a tremendous job monitoring and analyzing the war, the question that often gets lost in the details is what does Russian President Vladimir Putin, the man who has personally ordered this brutal war, really want to gain from it?
Putin’s View of the World
Observers have
noted that following the annexation of Crimea, which sent the Russian public into an unprecedented patriotic
fervor, Putin increasingly acted like someone with an inflated sense of himself as a historic figure. This is not surprising: History is the Russian president's favorite subject. There is nothing wrong with such a hobby, if only Russia’s political system were not so closely interwoven with Putin’s personal preferences and his worldview. Having been at the helm of a large and complex country for almost a quarter of a century, at some point Putin may have ceased to distinguish between his personal interests and those of the country. Perhaps he sincerely believes that his vision of Russia and his political choices are simply the right ones. Perhaps he really thinks that he is working for the good of the country, “
like a slave on the galleys,” trying to secure Russia’s right place (and likely his own) in history.
Putin's rhetoric has become steeped in historical narratives that are as convoluted as they are false, according to Russian
historians. His recent
interview with Tucker Carlson, during which the Russian president delivered a thirty-minute lecture on Russian history, is the latest example.
