Ukraine's 10-point peace plan and the Kyiv security compact :An assessment

With the aim of bringing Russia’s war of aggression to an end and developing a sustainable post-war peace, Ukraine has advanced its vision of peace (as encompassed in President Zelenskyy’s ‘peace formula’) and the paths that lead to this (as outlined in Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan). Other actors, including China, Indonesia and the collective African Peace Initiative Mission, have advanced their own peace proposals. This in-depth analysis (IDA) scrutinises the different proposals that have been put forward and their visions for the post-war future of Ukraine and the European security order. It concentrates on the following questions: what are the varying assumptions about the preconditions for peace versus ceasefire? Do the ‘peace’ proposals in question draw a distinction between ceasefire and peace? There is an important difference between war termination, conflict resolution and peacebuilding – how is this dealt with by the various proposals? Finally, the IDA seeks to assess how feasible the peace proposals are in light of two baseline scenarios for the war’s future course – a stalemate (long war of attrition) and Ukraine’s victory. It concludes that the question of how to sustain Ukraine’s independence and security is central to any discussion of finding an end to the war and a long-term peace, underscoring the centrality of an unambiguous political settlement supported by acceptable, effective guarantors.