Risk-adjusted decision making can help protect food supply and farmer livelihoods in West Africa

Weather extremes are challenging the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2) – Zero Hunger globally and, most notably, in West Africa where it is further aggravated by rapid population growth. Here we present a stylized stochastic food production model to show how optimal crop allocations change depending on food security risk targets. To guarantee stable livelihoods for farmers, we examine the viability of a contingency fund that supports farmers in the event of low crop yields. Applied to the West African context, accounting for weather variability can substantially improve the reliability of the food supply and boost the fiscal sustainability of a contingency fund. Yet, setting reliability targets for food security is costly and leaves high residual risk in certain regions. Spatial risk-sharing through regional cooperation at the West African scale can eliminate the risk of insufficient food supply and further enhance the fund solvency.