Bottom Line
- The meeting of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference signaled a continuation of China’s assertive foreign policy.
- China will continue to take actions designed to constrain what it regards as Taiwanese moves toward independence.
- Chinese leaders promised economic prosperity but fell short on deliverables.
- Though stating its desire for more foreign investment, Beijing has offered few concrete incentives.
On the first Monday in March 2024, delegates—nearly 3,000 to the National People’s Congress (NPC) and over 2,000 to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—gathered in Beijing. With the exception of a handful of members of ethnic minorities in colorful costumes, the bright jackets of some of the very few female delegates and a phalanx of military officers who marched in en masse, the huge auditorium was a sea of navy blue suits. Delegates were served tea in identical cups by young women in identical red suits. A copy of the premier’s work report, the centerpiece of the NPC meeting, was on each delegate’s desk. Unity was the implicit message. What are China’s Two Sessions?
The NPC is, according to China’s constitution, the supreme governing body of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), but in practice is closely supervised by the Chinese Communist Party. Its delegates represent all areas of the country. They vote, typically unanimously or nearly unanimously, on the proposals proffered to them. The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference is strictly advisory, though consultations do take place. Its members include prominent businesspeople, experts in sundry fields like law and medicine, artists, the Chinese diaspora, and members of the powerless but legally permitted eight political parties. The Politics: Xi Jinping and the Communist Party Continue to Consolidate Power
The meeting was not without drama. The salient issue was what did not happen: Just before the event began, it was announced that Premier Li Qiang would not give a press conference, thus breaking with a three-decade old precedent. While reporters find the remarks useful for their stories, there is little spontaneity in the press conference. Questions are submitted beforehand, with no guarantee that the premier would address them or would deliver the kind of meaningful response that makes good stories. Speculation on the reason for the change focused on the weak position of the premier himself. Observers noticed that he appeared ill at ease, touching things on his desk and
misspeaking several times, once even continuing to read while the audience was applauding. Li spoke for only fifty minutes, less than half the time of his predecessors.
Although President Xi Jinping, seated front and center on the dais, never spoke, he was clearly in charge. The report
mentioned his name sixteen times, more than in any other report since Xi took office over a decade ago, and even used a phrase reminiscent of Mao Zedong as China’s “Great Helmsman.” In another indicator of Xi’s dominance, the State Council Organic Law was
revised for the first time since 1982, calling for the State Council to “uphold the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.” This strengthens the authority of the Party, specifically of Xi, over the Council. In other words, further solidifying the Party’s and Xi’s control over the state. The measure passed by 2,883 votes with eight opposing and nine abstentions. Symbolically, the 1982 revision had been put in place as part of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s efforts to separate the Chinese Communist Party from the government. Noting that the president had almost completely eclipsed the premier, Singaporean professor Alfred Wu
observed, “no one is number two.” Several years ago, term limits for holding China’s highest office were removed to allow Xi to stay at the helm as long as he wishes. Should the seventy-year-old opt to step down or become incapacitated, there is no clear successor. Struggling with Economic Growth
China's economic growth rate is projected to be “about” 5 percent, though experts are dubious that this can be achieved. There were already doubts that last year’s growth was really 5.2 percent as claimed. Some economists
believe it could have been as low as 1.5 percent, with the higher figure inflated, among other reasons, because it was based on 2022, when production suffered because of Covid restrictions. The Work Report called for helping local governments solve their debt problems, creating twelve million new jobs, and fostering improvements in health and elder care: the latter to alleviate problems attendant on China’s increasing proportion of senior citizens. Chinese leaders also announced their intention to further develop major science and technological infrastructure. Lastly, foreign-funded enterprises were invited to participate in government procurement, bidding in accordance with the law and on an equal footing with domestic entities.
For many Chinese, the economy
feels as if it is in recession. The property sector, which had accounted for about a quarter of GDP, remains in a precarious state, with government attempts to prop it up regarded as insufficient. Youth unemployment is at a
historic high and average salaries for those fortunate enough to have jobs have
declined. Although the work report stated that foreign investors are welcome, many have been put off by recent anti-espionage and data protection laws, as well as by several sudden high-profile detentions of Chinese and foreign businessmen. Foreign direct investment in China has fallen to a thirty-year low. China saw net
disinvestment in foreign direct investment in the third quarter of 2023 for the first time since the 1990s, meaning that firms moved more capital out of China than they brought in. Chinese firms increased outbound investment as well, evading government restrictions in various ways. In the words of one expert
interviewed by BBC, “There are fewer political checks and balances, there is no transparency.
