Without Tallinn, What Would the Future Hold for Estonia's Center Party?

On March 26, a majority in the Tallinn City Council declared no confidence in its elected mayor, Mihhail Kõlvart, who has governed since 2019. His replacement by Acting Mayor Madle Lippus (Social Democratic Party) marks the end of almost two decades of unbroken Center Party tenure in the capital. It has been a truism in Estonian politics since the early 2000s that many Tallinn voters supported the Center Party, providing it with a solid base of support. Kõlvart’s ouster marks the loss of the Center Party’s loyal bloc. One begins to wonder how Estonian politics may look without the Center Party. The country’s bifurcation along urban-rural lines accelerates while established parties lose ground to challengers who attempt to rally disaffected voters.   The importance of Tallinn’s mayoral control to the Center Party cannot be overstated. Before Center regained the mayoralty in 2007 following brief stints in office between 1999 and 2004, the party was in disarray. In April 2004, key Center Party leaders leaked a letter deploring the party’s inability to forge governing coalitions and uncertainty about European Union membership. The authors pointed out that of the major parties, Center spent the least time in the national government — only 21 months total in various coalitions before 2004. The Tallinn mayoralty offered many benefits to the beleaguered party. Tallinn is a multi-ethnic city; governing it burnished Center’s message that it enjoyed support from both Russophones and ethnic Estonians. Tallinn's 2004 population of 400,000 residents offered a sizable voter base. In Tallinn, Center governed a third of Estonians. Controlling the capital thus offered Center leverage, compensating for its lack of national influence. Tallinn has generated a large share of Center Party votes. In the 2009 local elections, the first after regaining the mayoralty, 54.9% of Center’s votes came from Tallinn. By contrast, the second-largest Center stronghold, Ida-Viru County, provided only 15% of Center’s total. Its main challenger, the Reform Party, was less dependent on any single electoral district for its votes. Harju County and Tartu City, the districts that supported Reform the most, formed only 12.2% and 11.7%, respectively, of their total vote share. The same trend appears at the national level. In 2015, the year before Center formed a coalition government, fully 44.5% of the Center Party’s votes came from the three Tallinn electoral districts. These three districts formed only 29% of second-place challenger Reform’s vote total. The largest Reform Party support base, Harju County, comprised only 19.5%. The Center Party depended heavily on a few electoral districts to maintain its competitiveness. The party’s overreliance on the capital led to strategic decisions that further distanced it from national power. Center’s Tallinn branch disproportionately affected the national party’s electoral prospects. Its recent scandals damaged Center Party support nationwide. The party’s first prime minister, Jüri Ratas, resigned in 2021 after a corruption scandal involving state lender KredEx and Tallinn businessman Hillar Teder. While Mayor Kõlvart was cleared of wrongdoing, the party’s reputation sank, and lingering scandals forced Center out of a coalition with the Reform Party in 2022.