Reviving Tanzania’s regional leadership and global engagement

Tanzania has recently begun to re-emerge from a period of damaging isolationism under former president John Magufuli. This isolationism obstructed international investment and undermined the country’s credible history of global and continental leadership. Following Magufuli’s death in 2021, his successor, Samia Suluhu Hassan, commissioned an official review of foreign policy strategy – seeking a first refresh of policy for over two decades. This review provides a chance to consolidate Tanzania’s revival as an economic and diplomatic leader. Tanzania’s rising economic influence and its ambitions to complete major cross-border railway and energy infrastructure projects will demand a more active leadership role on regional integration efforts, alongside commitments on peacekeeping and conflict mediation. Re-engagement with a range of international partners is already delivering greater choice and resilience in trade and foreign investment links. Examples of this are the pursuit of stronger ties with countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam; the consolidation of emerging strategic partnerships, particularly with the Gulf Arab states; and a repair of established relations with China, India and Western partners. A gradual renewal of Tanzania’s commitment and voice on international and multilateral issues is also under way. But this renewal is yet to be reinforced by decisive action to rejoin frameworks from which the country withdrew at the peak of its isolationism under Magufuli. President Samia’s foreign policy review may target further opportunities for leadership on global challenges and opportunities, including on climate change, critical minerals and peacebuilding. Entrenched suspicion of external investment remains a significant obstacle in the pursuit of external partnerships, exacerbated by a lack of coordination between economic diplomacy objectives and incomplete domestic governance and democratic reforms. The suppression of public debate – most notably in relation to controversy surrounding investments in Tanzanian port infrastructure by Gulf states – risks making this obstacle larger still. Bolder steps are needed to create long-term safeguards against a return to isolation or cautious disengagement. The foreign policy review currently under way must target a refreshed strategic vision that emphasizes the assertive and positive dimensions of non-alignment. This research paper contends that a slow and hesitant approach alone will not be enough to safeguard against a return to isolation. A new strategy must emphasize proactive engagement with regional institutions and on global issues. The paper presents a series of recommendations aimed at both Tanzanian policymakers and Tanzania’s international partners. Among the specific recommendations, the paper calls for policymakers to:Take a more proactive approach to regional economic integration. Tanzania must seize opportunities in its immediate region, anticipating its expected rise as the largest economy in East Africa and helping to safeguard the viability of major cross-border infrastructure projects.Consolidate Tanzania’s role in regional conflict resolution. To mitigate suggestions of divided loyalties and connect with Tanzania’s historical record on conflict mediation efforts, it could bolster the role of Arusha and Zanzibar in hosting talks and show leadership on wider security issues in East and southern Africa, including in the maritime space.Rejoin multilateral governance and legal initiatives. Tanzania should rejoin frameworks from which it has previously withdrawn, such as the Open Government Partnership, and put in place legal safeguards to mitigate against future departures.Ensure the new strategy explicitly highlights a goal to engage with, and learn from the experience of, other middle-income countries. This could include further consolidating relations with emerging partners such as Indonesia, Vietnam and countries in Central and Eastern Europe.Embrace international leadership opportunities to advance core principles of South–South cooperation. Tanzania could signal its intent to seek non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council for the first time since 2006, highlighting its existing peacekeeping contributions and furthering its wider agenda for reform of the UN system to allow greater African representation.Be transparent about foreign investment agreements and allow dissenting views on foreign policy to be aired freely. A heavy-handed response to criticism – as, for example, in relation to port infrastructure investment by Gulf states – can exacerbate isolationist tendencies and in turn discourage the involvement of external partners in essential major projects.Go beyond simple platitudes when mentioning climate change and other environmental issues. The review must help to create a reference point for Tanzanian officials as they engage in international forums while pursuing major oil and gas projects. The development of a critical minerals strategy should also be aligned with the country’s objectives in economic diplomacy.Signal a new approach and distinguish the new foreign policy strategy from that of the previous administration with refreshed terminology. The new strategy must be seen as a turning point, and must reject entrenched norms of hesitation or suspicion in external relations. Merely retaining the same basic strategic framing of economic diplomacy and non-alignment, while simply adding new themes, would convey a message of greater passivity than Tanzania’s ambitions deserve.