Summary
- This essay evaluates past carbon emission reduction and the feasibility of eliminating fossil fuels to achieve net-zero carbon by 2050.
- Despite international agreements, government spending and regulations, and technological advancements, global fossil fuel consumption surged by 55 percent between 1997 and 2023. And the share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption has only decreased from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to approximately 82 percent in 2022.
- The first global energy transition, from traditional biomass fuels such as wood and charcoal to fossil fuels, started more than two centuries ago and unfolded gradually. That transition remains incomplete, as billions of people still rely on traditional biomass energies for cooking and heating.
- The scale of todayâs energy transition requires approximately 700 exajoules of new non-carbon energies by 2050, which needs about 38,000 projects the size of BCâs Site C or 39,000 equivalents of Muskrat Falls.
- Converting energy-intensive processes (e.g., iron smelting, cement, and plastics) to non-fossil alternatives requires solutions not yet available for largescale use.
- The energy transition imposes unprecedented demands for minerals including copper and lithium, which require substantial time to locate and develop mines.
- To achieve net-zero carbon, affluent countries will incur costs of at least 20 percent of their annual GDP.
- While global cooperation is essential to achieve decarbonization by 2050, major emitters such as the United States, China, and Russia have conflicting interests.
- To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, governments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible.
Authors
- Published in
- Canada
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Table of Contents
- Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050 1
- Contents 3
- Executive Summary 5
- Introduction 6
- 1. Carbon in the Biosphere 8
- 2. Energy Transitions 12
- 3. Our Record So Far 18
- 4. What It Would Take to Reverse the Past Emission Trend 20
- 5. The Task Ahead: Zero Carbon Electricity and Hydrogen 22
- 6. Costs, Politics, and Demand 28
- 7. Realities versus Wishful Thinking 33
- 8. Closing Thoughts 36
- References 38
- About the Author 45
- Acknowledgments 45
- Publishing Information 46
- About the Fraser Institute 47
- Editorial Advisory Board 48
