Bottom Line
- Contracting Russian private military companies, whether Wagner or its successor organization, the Africa Corps, is likely to lead to a series of unintended consequences for client states. In addition to increases in indiscriminate violence, outsourcing security to Russian private military companies can generate intra-military frictions that can exacerbate fragile civil-military relations.
- Given the recent surge in coup activity across the region, intra-military friction that could contribute to the erosion of norms is a critical threat to the stabilization of civil-military relations in the Sahel.
- As Africa Corps continues to expand across the Sahel, American foreign policy practitioners and observers would be well served to look beyond the immediate effects of their activities through a zero-sum lens.
- The long-term effects of Russian private military companies’ activities and tactical choices will expose their deficiencies as security partners. While the West has ceded ground in terms of immediate influence in the region, the pendulum could move back to center as the time horizon expands.
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Table of Contents
- BOTTOM LINE 1
- Contracting Russian private military companies, whether Wagner or its successor organization, the Africa Corps, is likely to lead to a series of unintended consequences for client states. In addition to increases in indiscriminate violence, outsourcing security to Russian private military companies can generate intra-military frictions that can exacerbate fragile civil-military relations. 1
- Given the recent surge in coup activity across the region, intra-military friction that could contribute to the erosion of norms is a critical threat to the stabilization of civil-military relations in the Sahel. 1
- As Africa Corps continues to expand across the Sahel, American foreign policy practitioners and observers would be well served to look beyond the immediate effects of their activities through a zero-sum lens. 1
- The long-term effects of Russian private military companies’ activities and tactical choices will expose their deficiencies as security partners. While the West has ceded ground in terms of immediate influence in the region, the pendulum could move back to center as the time horizon expands. 1
- Short-Term Consequences: Civilian Casualties and Exploitation 2
- Potential Long-Term Costs of Contracting Russian PMCs: Intra-Military Dynamics 3
- Conclusion and Policy Implications 4
- You May Also be Interested in 5
- Managing Tensions in the Sahel 5
- Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2024? 6
- Controlling the Narrative: A Roadmap to Russia’s 2024 Presidential Election 6
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