The Baltic (R)evolution in Military Affairs

During the past 20 years of their NATO membership, the Baltic states achieved a multi-faceted transformation in their strategic posture establishment, military capability development, and level of interdependence with their NATO allies. Once inexperienced newcomers, the so-called “one-issue” countries (referring to their focus on Russia as a strategic challenger to NATO) with no clear role in the alliance and doomed to have an “indefensible” territory, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have gradually turned into an exemplary NATO region demonstrating a deep understanding of regional security issues and making practical steps towards better preparedness, including proving their defensibility in practice. The Baltic states made substantial progress in cyber and energy security, strategic communication, defense spending, and military capability development. These achievements in the Baltic states’ military affairs serve as an example for other NATO member states often lacking the ambition to do and spend more on their security and defense. They demonstrate how to turn vulnerabilities and limited resources into chances and innovative solutions. Reconnecting with the West Immediately after regaining their independence in the 1990s, the Baltic states initiated the restoration of their armed forces. Though they did not start completely from scratch, given their statehood and military tradition during the interwar period (1918-1940) and their experience in irregular armed resistance during the Soviet occupation, the Baltic states were confronted with multiple constraints in the effort of (re-)building their national militaries. A Russian energy blockade, massive financial issues, and remaining Russian armed forces on the Baltic states’ territories until mid-1993 (Lithuania) and mid-1994 (Latvia and Estonia) were limiting conditions for rapid progress in the restoration and modernization of the armed forces. However, with the aspired accession to NATO representing the sole viable option for guaranteeing their future security, the Baltic states were highly motivated to move forward with reform implementation in order to exploit the window of opportunity for joining the alliance as soon as possible. Ten years later, in 2004, the Baltic states became full-fledged members of NATO. It represented a remarkable achievement for countries that spent 50 years as integral parts of the Soviet Union and were exposed to systematic attempts to destroy all forms of their independent societal structures including (and especially) the military ones. As newcomers to the alliance, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were confronted with an international security agenda that was rather distant from their national agendas. NATO’s focus on counterterrorism and efforts in strengthening its expeditionary profile to perform crisis management operations outside its geographic area represented a major challenge for the Baltic states in finding their role in the alliance. However, determined to strengthen their standing among the allies (especially the US as the most crucial partner), the Baltic states made steps to adjust to the prevailing Zeitgeist . They joined NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan in 2005, intending to support the alliance in its counterterrorism operation through engagement in civilian and military tasks. Estonia became involved in military operations in the Helmand province, Latvia coordinated NATO’s military supply chains through the Riga seaport, and Lithuania took over the leadership of the provincial reconstruction team (PRT) in Ghor province. In addition to that, the special forces units of the Baltic states were active in multiple locations in Afghanistan supporting the allies in various active combat operations. The mission in Afghanistan (although in itself fundamentally unsuccessful as the chaotic withdrawal in 2021 and the events in the aftermath have shown) allowed the armed forces of the Baltic states to adapt to NATO structures and enhance their interoperability with the allied forces. The Baltic armed forces were at least partially re-designed as light flexible units able to conduct irregular warfare and engage with civilian players in common crisis management operations. Lithuania and Latvia decided to move to professional military service and thus abolished conscription in 2006 (Latvia) and 2008 (Lithuania). Out of the three Baltic states, only Estonia preserved the universal conscription model. While Estonia sustained military spending close to 2% of GDP throughout the years, the defense budgets of the remaining two Baltic states were scarce during this time, especially in the case of Lithuania, which spent less than 1% of GDP for defense for several years in a row. Limited defense financing and light-handed conscription abolishment were a consequence of the prevailing dangerous overconfidence in NATO’s ability to immediately support its allies in case of a potential military crisis. At the same time, the principles of host nation support — meaning obligations to provide effective logistical assistance for incoming allied forces — were not reflected seriously in the Baltic states. Insufficient investment in the development of national defensive capabilities left the Baltic states highly vulnerable amid the existing serious limitations for military logistics in the region that could hamper accessibility to NATO’s military supplies and reinforcements. These issues are still not fully resolved.   Closing Security Gaps As a part of NATO’s commitment to the Baltic Sea region, its peacetime instrument — the Air Policing Mission — was extended to the Baltics in 2004. With Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia lacking their own national military capabilities in this area, NATO stepped in with rotational contingents to help protect the air space over the Baltics. The level of urgency for doing so was high — situated in an unfavorable geographic location between mainland Russia, the Kaliningrad enclave, and Belarus, the Baltic states were permanently confronted by provocative actions by Russian Force aircraft flying near the Baltic states’ airspace without using transponders, communicating with Air Traffic Control, or having filed a flight plan. The Air Policing Mission started with deploying Allied forces to the air base at Šiauliai, Lithuania. Initially designed as temporary support, the Baltic Air Policing Mission was declared permanent in 2012 after years of active advocacy of the Baltic states. After the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, the mission was expanded to include deployment of Allied air forces to the air base at Ämari, Estonia. As of March 1, 2024, the Latvian military base at Lielvārde is the third NATO base to host Allied fighter detachments for conducting the Baltic Air Policing Mission. The Baltic states themselves have been actively involved in the mission through the host nation support framework, taking over the responsibility of its smooth logistical and organizational implementation.