Africa’s Development Dynamics 2023 - INVESTING IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Table of Contents

• Foreword 3
• Acknowledgements 5
• Editorial 9
• Abbreviations and acronyms 19
• Executive summary 23
• Overview 27
• Skills development can increase the productivity of Africa’s talent pool and create jobs 27
• Figure 1. Minimum proficiency in mathematics and reading and primary school completion in selected countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, 2019 28
• Figure 2. Percentage of tertiary education graduates from programmes in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and gross enrolment rates in African countries, average 2015‑23 30
• Table 1. Demand for and supply of digital skills across Africa 30
• Figure 3. Jobs requiring digital skills by 2030 in five African countries, by skill level 31
• Better policies contribute to productive and inclusive skills development in Africa 31
• Figure 4. Primary school completion, public education spending and share of official development assistance allocated to education, by world region, 2000‑22 32
• Table 2. Challenges and policy actions to boost skills, jobs and productivity 32
• Table 3. Skills, jobs and productivity: Policy recommendations by region 35
• Notes 36
• References 36
• Chapter 1. Skills development for Africa’s productive transformation 41
• Continental profile 44
• Figure 1.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending by world region, 2000‑22 44
• Figure 1.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation by world region, 2021 44
• Africa’s growing talent pool is seeking better opportunities for productive employment 45
• Figure 1.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling by world region, 2020 45
• Figure 1.4. Minimum proficiency in mathematics and reading and primary school completion in selected countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, 2019 46
• Box 1.1. Defining and assessing skills in this report 46
• Box 1.2. Supply of and demand for skills for productive employment in Africa 48
• Figure 1.5. Potential economic gain from children’s achieving at least basic proficiency in foundational skills in world regions by 2100 48
• Limited access to quality education, labour market divides and a slow productive transformation curtail Africa’s skill supply and demand 49
• Figure 1.6. Disparities in educational outcomes across genders and rural and urban areas in Africa 50
• Figure 1.7. Disparities in skilled occupations across genders and rural and urban areas in Africa 51
• Table 1.1. Three salient labour market divides in Africa 52
• Figure 1.8. Value added per worker in major sectors in Africa, 2001‑21 53
• Figure 1.9. Evolution of employment by sector in Africa, 2001‑21 53
• Figure 1.10. Percentage of workers involved in low‑, medium‑ and high‑skilled occupations by economic activity in Africa, 2021 or latest year 54
• Figure 1.11. Proportion of matched, undereducated and overeducated employees and self‑employed workers by world region, 2022 or latest year available 55
• Figure 1.12. Net international migration of African LinkedIn users by top five and bottom five skills and industries, 2015‑19 56
• As African economies diversify, workers need more soft, business and sector-specific technical skills to increase productivity and technology adoption 56
• Figure 1.13. Labour force breakdown by occupation in selected African countries, 2021 or latest year available 57
• Table 1.2. Policy priorities for reducing skill gaps in Africa 58
• Figure 1.14. Importance of foundational and soft skills in selected agrarian and diversifying African economies and other world regions 58
• Figure 1.15. Importance of business and managerial skills and technical skills in selected agrarian and diversifying African economies and other world regions 59
• Figure 1.16. Percentage of tertiary education graduates from programmes in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and gross tertiary enrolment rates in African countries, average 2015‑23 60
• Digital skills are in demand across the continent, while the need for green skills will increase with climate challenges 61
• Table 1.3. Demand for and supply of digital skills across Africa 62
• Box 1.3. Massive open online courses and e‑learning in Africa 62
• Figure 1.17. Jobs requiring digital skills in 2030 in five African countries, by skill level 63
• Figure 1.18. Differences in adoption of artificial intelligence across African countries and other world regions 64
• Box 1.4. The artificial intelligence revolution and online labour 64
• Figure 1.19. Shares of online workers across selected African countries, 2020 65
• Figure 1.20. Computer skill differences among 15‑24 year olds by gender in selected African countries 66
• Annex 1.A. The nexus of migration and skills in Africa 68
• Annex Figure 1.A.1. Africa’s stocks of high‑ and low‑educated migrants per region of origin and destination, in thousand, 2020 68
• Annex Figure 1.A.2. Occupational skills of immigrants and natives across selected African countries 70
• Annex 1.B. Analysis of skill importance using labour force statistics and the O*NET database 71
• Annex Table 1.B.1. Classification used for the Africa’s Development Dynamics 2024 analysis 72
• Notes 74
• References 74
• Chapter 2. Policies for productive and inclusive skills development in Africa 83
• Table 2.1. Challenges and policy actions for skills development for productive employment 87
• African countries can be strategic in meeting emerging needs for technical skills in priority sectors, digital skills and green skills 87
• Table 2.2. Steps to design nationally specific skill strategies 88
• Box 2.1. Deriving skill trends through occupation‑skill matching classifications 89
• Box 2.2. The potential of job board data to inform skill gap assessments in Africa’s labour markets 90
• Table 2.3. Job boards in selected African countries 90
• Box 2.3. National artificial intelligence strategies and inclusive skills development in Africa 91
• Efficient education spending, cost‑effective interventions and learning assessments can help expand quality education 91
• Table 2.4. Steps to expand quality education through learning assessments and cost‑effective interventions 92
• Table 2.5. Policy options to improve learning outcomes in African countries, by cost‑effectiveness 93
• Table 2.6. Overview of standardised learning assessments in African countries 94
• Box 2.4. The OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment 94
• Training and skill recognition can benefit informal and female workers in African countries 95
• Table 2.7. Steps to improve the labour productivity of informal and female workers through innovative on‑ and off‑the‑job training and skill recognition 95
• TVET institutions can better respond to Africa’s emerging skill needs 98
• Table 2.8. Steps to help technical and vocational education and training institutions embrace innovative approaches to emerging skill needs 98
• Figure 2.1. Percentage of female students enrolled in secondary technical and vocational education and training in selected African countries, 2017‑19 100
• Box 2.5. Germany’s activities in technical and vocational education and training across Africa 100
• Box 2.6. Bridging educational and skill gaps in Portuguese‑speaking African countries 102
• The regional integration of African skills development depends on harmonised frameworks, international safeguards and partnerships 102
• Table 2.9. Steps for regional and continental integration of skills policies 103
• Box 2.7. The Skills Initiative for Africa 104
• Notes 105
• References 105
• Chapter 3. Skills for mining in Southern Africa 113
• Southern Africa regional profile 116
• Figure 3.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in Southern Africa, 2000‑22 116
• Figure 3.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in Southern Africa, 2021 116
• Southern Africa can further raise educational outcomes 117
• Figure 3.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling, 2020 117
• Figure 3.4. Percentage of adolescents in upper secondary school achieving proficiency in mathematics, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 118
• Figure 3.5. Migrants with tertiary education, origin and destination, 2020 118
• Figure 3.6. Percentage of workers in skilled occupations, by gender and place of residence, 2019 or latest year available 119
• Figure 3.7. Percentage of workers who have an equal, higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation, 2022 or latest year available 120
• Southern Africa’s mining sector can benefit from demand‑oriented skills development 120
• Box 3.1. Mining, beneficiation and mining‑based manufacturing 121
• Table 3.1. Top three exports for Southern African countries, 2022 122
• Figure 3.8. Employment by education level in mining and mining‑related manufacturing in South Africa 123
• Figure 3.9. Capacity underutilisation in mining‑related manufacturing in South Africa, 2021‑23 average 124
• Figure 3.10. Capacity underutilisation in mining‑related manufacturing in South Africa due to labour shortages, 2004‑2023 (% of total capacity) 124
• Table 3.2. Beneficiation and downstream activities and in‑demand occupations for important mineral value chains in Southern Africa 126
• Harmonised mining policies and better‑targeted education and training can improve skills development for Southern Africa’s mining sector 129
• Table 3.3. Examples of mining sector policies and strategies in Southern Africa 130
• Table 3.4. Tertiary education and training institutions teaching technical mining skills in Zimbabwe 132
• Notes 134
• References 134
• Chapter 4. Skills for mining in Central Africa 139
• Central Africa regional profile 142
• Figure 4.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in Central Africa, 2000–2022 142
• Figure 4.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in Central Africa, 2021 142
• Central African countries are facing a major skills shortage, which has resulted in a preponderance of low‑skilled jobs and widespread informality 143
• Figure 4.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling, 2020 143
• Figure 4.4. Percentage of adolescents in lower secondary school achieving proficiency in reading and mathematics, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 144
• Figure 4.5. Percentage of workers in skilled occupations, by gender and place of residence, 2019 or latest year available 144
• Figure 4.6. Percentage of workers who have a higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation, 2022 or latest year available 145
• Figure 4.7. Percentage of respondents able to use a mobile bank account without the help of a third party 146
• Figure 4.8. Migrants by level of education, origin and destination, 2020 147
• The region has significant mineral wealth to supply global demand, but little of the material extracted is processed locally due to a lack of skills and infrastructure 147
• Table 4.1. Minerals extracted in Central Africa 148
• Box 4.1. Change in global demand for critical minerals, and implications for Central Africa 148
• Figure 4.9. Minerals as a share of total exports from Central African countries, 2022 149
• Box 4.2. Skills development under the 2009 Africa Mining Vision 150
• Table 4.2. National public mining companies in Central Africa 151
• Figure 4.10. Share of mining companies citing lack of skills as a barrier to investment, 2022 151
• Table 4.3. DR Congo employee quota by job category (2018 Mining Code) 152
• Box 4.3. Difficulties faced by ASM workers 152
• Table 4.4. Skills required by workers to improve the productivity of ASM in Central Africa 154
• Capacity building will be crucial to increase local processing and adapt to technological developments and climate change 154
• Table 4.5. Technical skills and occupations required in critical mineral value chains with a strong presence in Central Africa 155
• Figure 4.11. Percentage of STEM graduates and gross higher education enrolment ratio, 2015–2023 average 156
• Box 4.4. The Kibali gold mine in the DR Congo: a case study of modern mining 156
• Figure 4.12. Global water scarcity footprint by mineral 157
• Central African governments have several policy levers at their disposal to strengthen skills and promote better positioning within mining value chains 158
• Box 4.5. African Centre of Excellence for Advanced Battery Research in DR Congo 158
• Table 4.6. Examples of mining training institutions in Central Africa 160
• Notes 162
• References 163
• Chapter 5. Digital skills in East Africa 169
• Regional profile 172
• Figure 5.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in East Africa, 2000‑22 172
• Figure 5.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in East Africa, 2021 172
• Most workers in East Africa are in vulnerable employment and unskilled occupations, and the quality of education varies widely across countries 173
• Figure 5.3. Percentage of workers in skilled occupations, by gender and place of residence, 2019 or latest year available 173
• Figure 5.4. Percentage of workers who have an equal, higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation, 2022 or latest year available 174
• Figure 5.5. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling, 2020 175
• Figure 5.6. Migrants by level of education, origin and destination, 2020 176
• Digital skills development is advancing in East Africa but unevenly across countries 176
• Table 5.1. East African countries clustered according to digital economy advancement 177
• Box 5.1. Advancing artificial intelligence and high‑end digital skills in Seychelles 179
• Figure 5.7. Export of services in information and communications technology by selected East African countries 180
• Table 5.2. Examples of digital skills training providers in East Africa 181
• East African countries require specific strategies to develop digital skills based on national levels of supply and demand 183
• Table 5.3. Digital policy and regulatory frameworks in East Africa 184
• Box 5.2. Digital skills policies in least developed countries affected by conflict in East Africa 184
• Table 5.4. Examples of inclusive digital skills development initiatives in East Africa 185
• Notes 189
• References 189
• Chapter 6. Skills for renewable energies in North Africa 195
• North Africa regional profile 198
• Figure 6.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in North Africa, 2000‑2022 198
• Figure 6.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation in North Africa, 2021 198
• North Africa must continue its efforts to deliver high‑quality skills for all 199
• Figure 6.3. Average years of schooling and learning‑adjusted years of schooling, 2020 199
• Figure 6.4. Percentage of adolescents in lower secondary school achieving proficiency in reading and mathematics, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 200
• Figure 6.5. Number of workers by skill level and occupation, latest year available 201
• Figure 6.6. Percentage of workers who have a higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation, 2022 or latest year available 202
• Figure 6.7. Migrants by education level, origin and destination, 2020 203
• The renewable energies sector presents a new opportunity to develop skills and productive employment in North Africa 203
• Table 6.1. Socio‑economic effects of the energy transition (under the “1.5°C scenario” compared with the “business‑as‑usual scenario”) 204
• Figure 6.8. Total employment in renewables sector, latest available data 205
• Table 6.2. Renewable energy skills development priorities by North African country profile 205
• Table 6.3. Skills breakdown by renewable energy value chain segment 206
• Box 6.1. Specific skills required for the development of renewable energy value chains 207
• Table 6.4. Degree‑level courses on renewable energies in North Africa 207
• Box 6.2. The Kaizen approach to skills development 208
• Public policies to improve skills in the renewable energy sector in North Africa 208
• Table 6.5. National renewable energy strategies incorporating skills development in the sector 209
• Table 6.6. Transferable skills by value chain segment in the renewable energy sector 211
• Box 6.3. Casablanca Finance City’s AFIC Initiative: a talent pool to catalyse competitiveness 214
• Annex 6.A. Qualitative survey of key actors in North Africa’s renewable energy sector 215
• Notes 215
• References 215
• Chapter 7. Skills for agri‑food in West Africa 221
• West Africa regional profile 224
• Figure 7.1. Vulnerable employment, labour productivity and education spending in West Africa, 2000‑22 224
• Figure 7.2. Breakdown of working population by type of occupation by country in West Africa, 2021 224
• West African countries have a major shortage of skills 225
• Figure 7.3. Average years of schooling and learning-adjusted years of schooling, 2020 225
• Figure 7.4. Percentage of adolescents starting secondary school who are proficient in reading and mathematics, most recent year observed (2013‑22) 225
• Figure 7.5. Percentage of workers in skilled jobs, by gender and place of residence, 2010‑2019 226
• Figure 7.6. Percentage of workers who have a higher or lower level of education than required for their occupation, 2022 or latest year available 227
• Figure 7.7. R&D expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) and number of R&D researchers per million inhabitants, average 2010–22 228
• Figure 7.8. Percentage of respondents able to use a mobile money account without the help of a third party 228
• Figure 7.9. Migrants by level of education, origin and destination, 2020 229
• The agri‑food sector: A major lever for productive transformation in West Africa 229
• Table 7.1. West Africa’s highest agri‑food product exports, by country 2018-2022 230
• Box 7.1. Developing strategic value chains to boost local industry 231
• Closing the agri‑food skill-gap could boost the sector’s productivity and resilience 231
• Table 7.2. Skills needed for the development of the agri‑food sector 231
• Figure 7.10. Professional skills deficits in selected agri‑food occupations 232
• Figure 7.11. Productivity gap between ECOWAS countries and European and Central Asian countries in agriculture and industry (difference in value added per worker) 233
• Figure 7.12. Researchers in food science and nutrition, latest year available (2014‑16) 233
• Figure 7.13. Researchers in veterinary medicine, latest year available (2014–16) 234
• Box 7.2. Organic farming in West Africa 235
• West African decision‑makers can draw on public policy tools to improve agri‑food skills 235
• Box 7.3. The Songhaï Centre: An agri‑food skills incubator in West Africa 237
• Box 7.4. Agricultural training initiatives in Nigeria 238
• Box 7.5. A commitment to agricultural and rural training 240
• Figure 7.14. Agriculture orientation index for government expenditure and share of total public expenditure spent on agriculture in West Africa, average 2017‑21 241
• Annex 7.A. Technical research centres specialising in agri‑food research 243
• Annex Table 7.A.1. Examples of technical research centres in West Africa specialising in agri‑food research 243
• Notes 244
• References 244
• Annex A. Statistical annex 249