cover image: Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble

20.500.12592/2osn0er

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble

25 Sep 2024

The Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large–scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive–negative feedback loop governing their interaction (with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net–cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening) may determine the long–term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive–negative tipping feedback loop in a process–based conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: Herein, we distinguish between overshoot tipping cascades (leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC) and rate–induced tipping cascades (where the AMOC despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland). These different cascades occur within corridors of distinct tipping pathways that are affected by the GIS melting patterns and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its time scales. Our results suggest that it is not only necessary to avoid breaching the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects.
ice sea-level rise rd4 - complexity science rd1 - earth system analysis earth resilience science unit - ersu

Authors

Seroussi, Hélène, Pelle, Tyler, Lipscomb, William H., Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Albrecht, Torsten, Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Barre, Jean‐Baptiste, Berends, Constantijn J., Bernales, Jorge, Blasco, Javier, Caillet, Justine, Chandler, David M., Coulon, Violaine, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Garbe, Julius, Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien, Gladstone, Rupert, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas, Greve, Ralf, Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Han, Holly Kyeore, Hillebrand, Trevor R., Hoffman, Matthew J., Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Klose, Ann Kristin, Langebroek, Petra M., Leguy, Gunter R., Lowry, Daniel P., Mathiot, Pierre, Montoya, Marisa, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nowicki, Sophie, Pattyn, Frank, Payne, Antony J., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Robinson, Alexander, Saraste, Leopekka, Simon, Erika G., Sun, Sainan, Twarog, Jake P., Trusel, Luke D., Urruty, Benoit, Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Wang, Yu, Zhao, Chen, Zwinger, Thomas

Citation
Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez‐Solas, J., Asay‐Davis, X., Barre, J., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton‐Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet‐Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Wang, Y., Zhao, C., Zwinger, T. (2024): Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble. - Earth's Future, 12, 9, e2024EF004561.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561
Pages
44
Published in
Germany
Rights Holder
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Table of Contents

Related Topics

All