Bottom Line
- Moldova’s October 20, 2024, presidential election and accompanying referendum mark a pivotal moment for the country’s future.
- Voters will decide on a constitutional amendment that could cement an “irreversible European path,” setting the stage for Moldova’s potential EU accession by 2030.
- The election reflects deeper issues of national identity, sovereignty, and Moldova's choice between the East and the West—a choice with substantial geopolitical implications in the current climate of Russian aggression and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The upcoming October 20 th presidential election in Moldova is set to be a pivotal moment for the country. While Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine continues into its third year, Moldova is navigating a path toward EU accession with the goal of full membership by 2030. In addition to selecting Moldova’s next president, voters will participate in a
constitutional referendum, determining whether Moldova will adopt a constitutional amendment that enshrines an “irreversible European path” for the nation. Initiated by Moldova’s current president, Maia Sandu, this referendum aims to solidify Moldova’s pro-European trajectory within its Constitution.
Reforms Under Maia Sandu
The upcoming presidential election will shape not only Moldova’s domestic governance but also reinforce its geopolitical alignment. Domestically, this election serves as a referendum on the anti-corruption, economic, and judicial reforms championed by pro-European President Maia Sandu. One of her most significant achievements has been the dismantling of key elements of Moldova's oligarchic system – a task that remains ongoing but has laid crucial groundwork for reducing corruption and strengthening state institutions. Continuing with Sandu’s leadership would likely sustain and build on these efforts, aiming to pave the way for long-term development and modernization in Moldova. While Sandu’s prospects for a second term appear relatively secure – likely extending to a second-round runoff if necessary – the future of these reforms will depend heavily on sustained legislative support.
Internationally, Moldova’s sovereignty and alignment with European values are at stake. One of Sandu’s greatest
achievements has been raising Moldova’s profile on the international stage, moving the country out of isolation, and gaining the attention of key global powers. For the first time in recent history, Moldova’s interests are firmly on the radar of US and EU leaders who recognize and support its aspirations. Another notable achievement, driven by the war and the pressing geopolitical climate, has been Moldova’s successful reduction of its dependency on Russian energy – a longstanding lever of influence for Moscow – through
diversification efforts backed by Romania and the EU. To reinforce its energy independence, Moldova, the EU, and the Energy Community Secretariat signed a roadmap in February 2024, aiming for
full alignment with EU energy regulations by 2028. With its electricity grid synchronized with the European network in 2022, Moldova is now on track to join the EU energy market by 2027-2028, bringing lower costs and more energy options to citizens even before full EU membership. A shift toward pro-Russian leadership could jeopardize these gains, reopening Moldova to Russian influence and potentially undoing its progress toward stability and European integration over the past four years.
War in Ukraine and Russian Influence in Transnistria and Gagauzia
The war in Ukraine has heightened Moldova’s security concerns and intensified its desire to align with the EU. Both, Moldovan leaders and international allies, including
Germany’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, have emphasized that if Ukraine were to fall to Russia, Moldova could be Moscow’s next target. Moldova’s leaders have frequently acknowledged that Ukraine’s resistance is, in effect, also
safeguarding Moldova’s sovereignty.
The precarious geopolitical situation in Moldova is exacerbated by two regions that pose security and stability challenges: Transnistria and Gagauzia. Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region in eastern Moldova bordering Ukraine, remains a significant security concern for both Chisinau and Ukrainian leaders. The regime in Tiraspol, the region’s capital, hosts an estimated 2,000 Russian soldiers without Moldova’s consent and controls one of Eastern Europe’s
largest ammunition depots in Cobasna, only seven kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Despite years of negotiations, leaders in Chisinau and Tiraspol have struggled to compromise on the separatist issue, maintaining a tense status quo. Recently, Moldova
introduced tariffs on goods from Transnistria, an unprecedented assertion of economic control that Transnistrian leaders criticized as a “path of escalation,” with threats of retaliatory measures. Tiraspol further deepened the divide by passing a
law banning the term “Transnistria,” equating it with terms like “fascism” and “Nazism” and promoting the Russian term “Pridnestrovie” instead. This move, condemned by Chisinau as counterproductive, highlights the region’s defiance and resistance to integration.
Gagauzia, an autonomous region in southern Moldova, has also emerged as a potential flashpoint for separatist activity, heightening internal security challenges during a crucial election period. The administration in Comrat, Gagauzia’s capital, has
openly embraced pro-Russian stances and is heavily influenced by
Ilan Shor, a fugitive oligarch recently sentenced to 15 years in prison (in absentia) for his role in Moldova’s $1 billion bank scandal back in 2014. Now based in Moscow, allegedly Shor has been involved in efforts to
destabilize Moldova, positioning Gagauzia as a strategic center for these activities.
Historically, Russia wielded energy dependency as a tool to keep Moldova within its sphere of influence, frequently manipulating gas prices and controlling energy supplies from
Cuciurgan in Transnistria, which underscored Moldova’s vulnerability. Reports indicate that Shor-related actors
are bribing voters and staging protests in Moldova to undermine the pro-EU referendum and hinder the country’s progress toward EU integration. This interference is part of a broader campaign by Moscow, with significant funds – estimated
up to €100 million – allegedly funneled into influencing the electoral process.
Beyond financial support, Russia is reportedly deploying
digital and hybrid tactics, including spreading disinformation to stoke fears of war if Moldova moves closer to the EU.
