Authors
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Ganti, Gaurav, Lejeune, Quentin, Zhu, Biqing, Pfleiderer, Peter, Prütz, Ruben, Ciais, Philippe, Frölicher, Thomas L., Fuss, Sabine, Gasser, Thomas, Gidden, Matthew J., Kropf, Chahan M., Lacroix, Fabrice, Lamboll, Robin, Martyr, Rosanne, Maussion, Fabien, McCaughey, Jamie W., Meinshausen, Malte, Mengel, Matthias, Nicholls, Zebedee, Quilcaille, Yann, Sanderson, Benjamin, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Sillmann, Jana, Smith, Christopher J., Steinert, Norman J., Theokritoff, Emily, Warren, Rachel, Price, Jeff, Rogelj, Joeri
Related Organizations
- Citation
- Schleussner, C.-F., Ganti, G., Lejeune, Q., Zhu, B., Pfleiderer, P., Prütz, R., Ciais, P., Frölicher, T. L., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Gidden, M. J., Kropf, C. M., Lacroix, F., Lamboll, R., Martyr, R., Maussion, F., McCaughey, J. W., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Nicholls, Z., Quilcaille, Y., Sanderson, B., Seneviratne, S. I., Sillmann, J., Smith, C. J., Steinert, N. J., Theokritoff, E., Warren, R., Price, J., Rogelj, J. (2024): Overconfidence in climate overshoot. - Nature, 634, 366-373.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9
- Pages
- 24
- Published in
- Germany
- Rights Holder
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Table of Contents
- Overconfidence in climate overshoot 1
- Uncertain climate response and reversal 2
- Relying on CDR 3
- Regional climate change reversibility 3
- Time-lagged and irreversible impacts 4
- Socioeconomic impacts 5
- Adaptation decision-making and overshoot 6
- Reframing the overshoot discussion 6
- Online content 7
- Fig. 1 Illustrative climate outcomes under different conceptual categories of peak and decline pathways. 3
- Fig. 2 Estimating cumulative NNCE needs when accounting for climate response uncertainty. 4
- Fig. 3 Evolution of regional temperatures before and after overshoot compared with global temperature stabilization. 5
- Fig. 4 Long-term irreversible permafrost, peatland and sea-level rise impacts of overshoot. 6
- Fig. 5 Adaptation-relevant timescales and overshoot. 7
- Extended Data Fig. 1 Method to derive net-negative CO2 emissions under climate uncertainty for PROVIDE REN_NZCO2. 13
- Extended Data Fig. 2 FaIR v1. 14
- Extended Data Fig. 3 Median carbon dioxide removal ranges in AR6 for 2020–2100 across C1-3 with 5–95 percentile ranges. 15
- Extended Data Fig. 4 CO2fe emissions in overshoot versus stabilisation experiments. 16
- Extended Data Fig. 5 Evolution of regional precipitation before and after overshoot compared to global temperature stabilisation. 17
- Extended Data Fig. 6 Transient regional differences in a GMT stabilisation scenario. 18
- Extended Data Fig. 7 Differences between regional annual temperature before and after overshoot in a CMIP6 model ensemble. 19
- Extended Data Fig. 8 Differences between regional annual precipitation before and after overshoot in a CMIP6 model ensemble. 20
- Extended Data Fig. 9 CO2 and CH4 emissions from permafrost and peatlands under overshoot. 21
- Extended Data Fig. 10 High-end long-term irreversible permafrost, peatland and sea-level rise impacts of overshoot. 22
- Table 1 Conceptual categories of peak and decline emission pathways. 2
- Extended Data Table 1 Literature categories of peak and decline emission pathways. 23
- Extended Data Table 2 Overview of constraints of large-scale CDR72–89. 24
