These adjustments are made to better represent the call in the Paris Agreement for developed countries to take the lead in reducing emissions, the challenges related to stranded assets in 1.5°C compatible transitions (particularly in the developing world), and the current geopolitical context in the aftermath of the fossil gas price crisis. [...] In the case of the EU and the US, this increase in ambition is likely due to the faster gas phase-out found in the 2023 benchmarking report (although the 2020 report did not explicitly consider fossil gas benchmarks, and so this cannot be confirmed entirely). [...] The energy use and emissions components of buildings are separated and calculated at the component level, factoring in floor area or population (depending on whether the intensity is per m² or per capita) and the emissions factors of the energy sources. [...] To use the carbon intensity information from these IAMs, we therefore combined the direct emissions intensity from the IAM scenarios with the indirect emissions intensity from the IEA for 2030. [...] Therefore, we use the IAMs and the IEA targets to set the upper end of the range and extend the lower bound based on the bottom-up model; however, we do not extend it as low as the most ambitious bottom-up results.
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Table of Contents
- 1 Introduction 5
- 2 Methods applicable to all sectors 5
- 2.1 Global Integrated Assessment Models 5
- 2.1.1 Selecting pathways 6
- 2.2 Sectoral modelling 7
- 2.3 Literature review 7
- 3 Power sector 8
- 3.1 Country selection 8
- 3.2 The global / top-down perspective: producing national level data from global pathways 10
- 3.2.1 Downscaling global pathways 11
- 3.2.2 Adjusting global pathways 11
- 3.3 The bottom-up perspective: an in-depth review of national power systems modelling 12
- 3.4 Calculating emissions intensity benchmarks 14
- 3.5 Producing global benchmarks 14
- 3.6 Comparing different perspectives 15
- 3.7 Comparison with 2020 report 16
- 3.8 Additional benchmarks derived using this methodology 17
- 3.8.1 Share of electricity in Industry’s final energy demand (%) 17
- 3.8.2 Technological Carbon Removal (MtCO2/year) 17
- 4 Buildings sector 19
- 4.1 Introduction 19
- 4.2 Key mitigation strategies 19
- 4.3 Indicator selection 19
- 4.3.1 Energy intensity of building operations (kWh/m²) 20
- 4.3.2 Carbon intensity of building operations (kgCO2/m²) 20
- 4.3.3 Retrofitting rate (%/year) 20
- 4.3.4 Share of new buildings that are zero carbon in operation (%) 20
- 4.4 Key sources of information 20
- 4.4.1 Literature 20
- 4.4.2 Global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) 21
- 4.4.2.1 Scenario selection and calculations 21
- 4.4.2.2 Results from the IAMs 23
- 4.4.3 Sectoral modelling 26
- 4.4.3.1 Description of the model 26
- 4.4.3.2 Modelling principles 26
- 4.4.3.3 Input needs and assumptions 26
- 4.4.3.4 Model parameterisation 27
- 4.4.3.5 Results from the bottom-up modelling 28
- 4.5 Results 31
- 4.5.1 Combining the lines of evidence 31
- 5 Light-duty road transport 35
- 5.1 Introduction 35
- 5.2 Bottom-up approach: EV Model 35
- 5.3 Hybrid approach: FLEX model 35
- 5.4 Top-down perspective: Zero and low emission fuels 37
- 6 References 39
