Developed countries and China are the largest global emitters of GHG emissions and given their wealth and advanced EV industries, will need to do most of the heavy lifting in the global EV market and stock transition. [...] However, for the EV sales and stock share benchmarks, not all the 24 pathways provided the necessary data on the LDV subsector to enable their use in the LDV benchmarks. [...] We present the 50th percentile of the 24 pathways as representing the lower range of the benchmarks and the 95th percentile to represent the upper range. [...] Despite China’s rapid progress in EV sales and shrinking share of ICE vehicle sales, the projected stronger in the total fleet in the coming years will still result in growth of ICE vehicles, and therefore the total fleet emissions. [...] In the hybrid FLEX model, China, the EU27 and the US lead the race to zero-carbon transport by reaching 100% EV sales by 2030.
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- Pages
- 29
- Published in
- Germany
Table of Contents
- Summary 2
- 1 5
- 1.1 5
- Pathway narratives for EV sale and stock benchmarks 6
- 1.2 6
- Approach 5
- 2 7
- 2.1 7
- Share of low emission fuels in domestic transport 16
- 2.4 16
- Share of light duty EVs in total vehicle stock 12
- 2.3 12
- Share of EV sales (% of vehicle sales) 10
- 2.2 10
- Emission reductions from light-duty vehicles 7
- 3 19
- 4 20
- Conclusion 20
- Bibliography 21
- Annex: 1.5°C benchmarks 25
