Energy Technology Perspectives 2024

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Table of Contents

• Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 1
• Foreword 3
• Acknowledgements 5
• Table of contents 9
• List of figures 11
• List of boxes 19
• List of tables 20
• Executive Summary 21
• Introduction 28
• Chapter 1: The state of manufacturing and trade 30
• Highlights 30
• 1.1 Manufacturing 31
• The importance of manufacturing 31
• Investment in manufacturing 34
• Investment in clean energy technology supply chains 35
• Manufacturing capacity 38
• Clean technology manufacturing 38
• Materials production 46
• Geographical concentration 48
• Employment 51
• 1.2 Trade 53
• Trade volumes and values 53
• Trade routes and maritime chokepoints 60
• 1.3 Competitiveness 62
• Factors influencing costs 62
• Capital costs 64
• Levelised cost of production 70
• Other factors influencing competitiveness 78
• Domestic market size 79
• Existing industrial base 82
• 1.4 Industrial strategies and policies 87
• Direct support to producers 92
• Regulatory instruments 95
• Trade policy instruments 97
• Innovation support measures 106
• References 110
• Chapter 2: Global outlook 115
• Highlights 115
• 2.1 Methodological approach 116
• Scenario-based modelling 117
• Industrial strategies and policy instruments 119
• Trade policy instruments 120
• 2.2 Demand 121
• Clean energy technologies 121
• Market size 121
• EVs and batteries 124
• Solar PV 125
• Wind turbines 127
• Heat pumps 128
• Electrolysers 131
• Materials 132
• Market size 132
• Drivers of demand 135
• 2.3 Manufacturing 137
• Manufacturing capacity expansion plans 137
• Clean energy technologies 137
• Materials 142
• Manufacturing trends by technology and scenario 143
• EVs and batteries 143
• Solar PV 145
• Wind turbines 147
• Heat pumps 149
• Electrolysers 152
• Materials 153
• Near-zero emissions technologies 155
• Investment 158
• 2.4 Inter-regional trade 163
• Clean energy technologies 164
• Materials 170
• 2.5 CO2 emissions 172
• References 175
• Chapter 3: Outlook in major markets 177
• Highlights 177
• 3.1 United States 179
• EVs and batteries 181
• Current market and policy support 181
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 183
• Solar PV 189
• Current market and policy support 189
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 190
• Wind turbines 193
• Current market and policy support 193
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 194
• Materials 197
• 3.2 European Union 200
• EVs and batteries 203
• Current market and policy support 203
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 208
• Solar PV 216
• Current market and policy support 216
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 217
• Wind turbines 220
• Current market and policy support 220
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 221
• Heat pumps 224
• Materials 228
• 3.3 China 234
• The importance of manufacturing and trade 235
• EVs and batteries 239
• Solar PV 242
• Wind turbines 245
• Heat pumps 247
• Electrolysers 248
• Materials 250
• Steel 250
• Aluminium 251
• 3.4 India 254
• EVs and batteries 255
• Current market and policy support 255
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 257
• Solar PV 260
• Current market and policy support 260
• Manufacturing and trade prospects 261
• Electrolysers 263
• Materials 267
• References 271
• Chapter 4: Opportunities in emerging markets 282
• Highlights 282
• 4.1 Enabling factors for manufacturing investment 283
• Business environment 288
• Energy and transport infrastructure 290
• Resource availability and domestic markets 293
• 4.2 The prospects for manufacturing 293
• Solar PV 297
• Technology-specific enabling factors 297
• Opportunities for solar PV wafer and polysilicon manufacturing in Southeast Asia 300
• Wind turbines 303
• Technology-specific enabling factors 303
• Opportunities for wind manufacturing in Latin America 307
• EVs and batteries 309
• Technology-specific enabling factors 309
• Opportunities for EV and battery manufacturing in Southeast Asia 314
• Opportunities for EV and battery manufacturing in North Africa 318
• Opportunities for battery manufacturing in Latin America 320
• Iron and steel 326
• Technology-specific enabling factors 326
• Opportunities for direct reduced iron (DRI) production in Africa 332
• Ammonia 336
• Technology-specific enabling factors 336
• Opportunities for ammonia production in Africa 340
• Opportunities for ammonia production in Latin America 344
• References 350
• Chapter 5: International shipping 360
• Highlights 360
• 5.1 Role of shipping today 361
• Evolution of the shipping industry 361
• Global port infrastructure and shipping network 364
• Clean energy technology and material shipping networks 371
• Shipping costs 375
• Clean energy technologies 378
• Materials 380
• 5.2 Impact of clean energy transitions on shipping 381
• Shipping demand and routes 381
• Chokepoints 387
• 5.3 Decarbonising shipping 394
• Technologies for low-emissions shipping 394
• Energy efficiency 394
• Switching to low-emissions fuels 397
• CO2 emissions and energy trajectories by scenario 399
• Increased shipping costs 404
• Mapping low-emissions fuel supplies 408
• Regional differences in production costs 408
• Alternative fuel refuelling infrastructure needs 412
• References 419
• Chapter 6: Strategic considerations 423
• Highlights 423
• 6.1 Policy dimensions 424
• 6.2 Secure and resilient supply chains 427
• Risk of supply shocks due to a lack of diversity of supply 429
• Monitoring supply chain diversity 429
• Examples of policy responses 431
• Direct support to domestic producers 431
• Co-ordinate stockpiling internationally 433
• Improve market data 434
• Risk of supply shocks due to shipping bottlenecks 434
• Monitoring chokepoints 434
• Examples of policy responses 435
• Support alternative trade routes 435
• Agree and uphold international maritime conventions 435
• Risks to the timely build-out of resilient infrastructure 436
• Monitoring the adequacy of investment 438
• Examples of policy responses 439
• Create demand 440
• Reduce project lead times 440
• Ensure availability of personnel 441
• 6.3 Affordable technologies and materials 441
• Risk of higher prices due to measures affecting trade or a lack of competition 444
• Monitoring prices and the factors that can raise them 445
• Examples of policy responses 445
• Co-ordinate with trading partners to facilitate trade 445
• Co-operate on standards to reduce non-tariff measures 446
• Provide timely and transparent cost data 447
• Risk of a lack of innovation 448
• Monitoring innovation progress 450
• Examples of policy responses 451
• Co-operate internationally on priority innovation challenges 451
• Support demonstration projects and share the resulting knowledge 452
• Target support to emerging technology gaps 453
• Risk of inefficient use of materials and equipment 454
• Monitoring material efficiency 454
• Examples of policy responses 457
• Use performance-based regulation and other incentives for material efficiency 457
• Incentivise repairs and more durable products 458
• Boost re-use and recycling rates 458
• 6.4 People-centred transitions 459
• Risk of low investment in emerging market supply chains 461
• Monitoring clean energy investment in EMDEs 461
• Examples of policy responses 462
• Design strategies to promote inward investment 462
• Agree and enshrine principles for responsible investment 463
• Provide regulatory assistance to EMDEs 464
• Build strategic partnerships 464
• Risk that transitions are not fair and inclusive 465
• Monitoring changes in regional economic activity and employment 466
• Examples of policy responses 467
• Support regional economic development 468
• Develop programmes to promote skills, retraining and job opportunities 468
• 6.5 Overarching strategic policy responses 469
• Well-designed industrial strategies 470
• Amplify local advantages and reduce barriers to competitiveness 471
• Remain flexible and experiment to sharpen policies 471
• Do not close off international competition 472
• Cultivate strategic partnerships 473
• International co-operation to reduce non-tariff measures 473
• Consider the whole value chain, starting with end-user demand 474
• Think long term 475
• Innovation 475
• Co-location and integration 479
• Supporting investment in emerging markets 482
• Shipping 485
• Co-ordinating a common vision of the future fuel value chain 485
• Involving a broad set of stakeholders 485
• Investing in an international bunkering system 486
• Creating demand for low-emissions shipping fuels 486
• Funding complementary measures to manage early-stage risk 487
• Developing clear and agreed international standards 487
• Data 489
• References 492
• Annex A – IEA’s Manufacturing and Trade model 501
• Methodology 501
• Scope 501
• Framework description 503
• Sets and indices 505
• Decision variables 505
• Inputs 505
• Demand by clean energy technology and material 505
• Industrial strategies and policies 507
• Trade databases 509
• Industrial strategies and policy packages 510
• Cost data 511
• Production costs 511
• Transport costs 514
• Trade costs 514
• Other inputs 515
• Existing manufacturing capacity 515
• Announced manufacturing capacity 515
• Results 516
• Manufacturing results 516
• Inter-regional trade results 517
• Levelised cost of production 517
• Other results 517
• Constraints 517
• Additional technical details 519
• Batteries 519
• Electric cars: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles 520
• Solar PV 520
• Wind 521
• Electrolysers 521
• Heat pumps 521
• Trade shipping routes modelling 522
• Shipping activity 523
• Data sources 523
• Current and future trade flows by clean energy technology 527
• Electric cars and batteries 527
• Solar PV 529
• Wind 531
• Electrolysers 533
• Heat pumps 534
• Annex B – Manufacturing analysis 535
• Industrial survey methodology 535
• Enabling indicators for manufacturing investments 537
• Annex C – Shipping decarbonisation 543
• Technologies for shipping decarbonisation 543
• Ports for alternative fuels exports 548
• Annex D – Definitions 550
• Glossary 550
• Abbreviations and acronyms 557
• Units of measure 560
• Currency conversions 561
• Regional groupings 562
• Annex E – References 565