The deepening connections between energy, trade, manufacturing and climate are the focus of this latest edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) , the IEA’s flagship technology publication. Building on the comprehensive assessment of clean energy technology supply chains set out in ETP-2023 , this year’s edition offers cutting-edge analysis based on rich and detailed new data, granular surveys of industry, and a bottom-up approach to fresh modelling. Its significance is amplified by what has been, until now, a dearth of information in this space, and it will provide policymakers with an in-depth, quantified basis to inform their deliberations for years to come.
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Table of Contents
- Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 1
- Foreword 3
- Acknowledgements 5
- Table of contents 9
- List of figures 11
- List of boxes 19
- List of tables 20
- Executive Summary 21
- Introduction 28
- Chapter 1: The state of manufacturing and trade 30
- Highlights 30
- 1.1 Manufacturing 31
- The importance of manufacturing 31
- Investment in manufacturing 34
- Investment in clean energy technology supply chains 35
- Manufacturing capacity 38
- Clean technology manufacturing 38
- Materials production 46
- Geographical concentration 48
- Employment 51
- 1.2 Trade 53
- Trade volumes and values 53
- Trade routes and maritime chokepoints 60
- 1.3 Competitiveness 62
- Factors influencing costs 62
- Capital costs 64
- Levelised cost of production 70
- Other factors influencing competitiveness 78
- Domestic market size 79
- Existing industrial base 82
- 1.4 Industrial strategies and policies 87
- Direct support to producers 92
- Regulatory instruments 95
- Trade policy instruments 97
- Innovation support measures 106
- References 110
- Chapter 2: Global outlook 115
- Highlights 115
- 2.1 Methodological approach 116
- Scenario-based modelling 117
- Industrial strategies and policy instruments 119
- Trade policy instruments 120
- 2.2 Demand 121
- Clean energy technologies 121
- Market size 121
- EVs and batteries 124
- Solar PV 125
- Wind turbines 127
- Heat pumps 128
- Electrolysers 131
- Materials 132
- Market size 132
- Drivers of demand 135
- 2.3 Manufacturing 137
- Manufacturing capacity expansion plans 137
- Clean energy technologies 137
- Materials 142
- Manufacturing trends by technology and scenario 143
- EVs and batteries 143
- Solar PV 145
- Wind turbines 147
- Heat pumps 149
- Electrolysers 152
- Materials 153
- Near-zero emissions technologies 155
- Investment 158
- 2.4 Inter-regional trade 163
- Clean energy technologies 164
- Materials 170
- 2.5 CO2 emissions 172
- References 175
- Chapter 3: Outlook in major markets 177
- Highlights 177
- 3.1 United States 179
- EVs and batteries 181
- Current market and policy support 181
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 183
- Solar PV 189
- Current market and policy support 189
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 190
- Wind turbines 193
- Current market and policy support 193
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 194
- Materials 197
- 3.2 European Union 200
- EVs and batteries 203
- Current market and policy support 203
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 208
- Solar PV 216
- Current market and policy support 216
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 217
- Wind turbines 220
- Current market and policy support 220
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 221
- Heat pumps 224
- Materials 228
- 3.3 China 234
- The importance of manufacturing and trade 235
- EVs and batteries 239
- Solar PV 242
- Wind turbines 245
- Heat pumps 247
- Electrolysers 248
- Materials 250
- Steel 250
- Aluminium 251
- 3.4 India 254
- EVs and batteries 255
- Current market and policy support 255
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 257
- Solar PV 260
- Current market and policy support 260
- Manufacturing and trade prospects 261
- Electrolysers 263
- Materials 267
- References 271
- Chapter 4: Opportunities in emerging markets 282
- Highlights 282
- 4.1 Enabling factors for manufacturing investment 283
- Business environment 288
- Energy and transport infrastructure 290
- Resource availability and domestic markets 293
- 4.2 The prospects for manufacturing 293
- Solar PV 297
- Technology-specific enabling factors 297
- Opportunities for solar PV wafer and polysilicon manufacturing in Southeast Asia 300
- Wind turbines 303
- Technology-specific enabling factors 303
- Opportunities for wind manufacturing in Latin America 307
- EVs and batteries 309
- Technology-specific enabling factors 309
- Opportunities for EV and battery manufacturing in Southeast Asia 314
- Opportunities for EV and battery manufacturing in North Africa 318
- Opportunities for battery manufacturing in Latin America 320
- Iron and steel 326
- Technology-specific enabling factors 326
- Opportunities for direct reduced iron (DRI) production in Africa 332
- Ammonia 336
- Technology-specific enabling factors 336
- Opportunities for ammonia production in Africa 340
- Opportunities for ammonia production in Latin America 344
- References 350
- Chapter 5: International shipping 360
- Highlights 360
- 5.1 Role of shipping today 361
- Evolution of the shipping industry 361
- Global port infrastructure and shipping network 364
- Clean energy technology and material shipping networks 371
- Shipping costs 375
- Clean energy technologies 378
- Materials 380
- 5.2 Impact of clean energy transitions on shipping 381
- Shipping demand and routes 381
- Chokepoints 387
- 5.3 Decarbonising shipping 394
- Technologies for low-emissions shipping 394
- Energy efficiency 394
- Switching to low-emissions fuels 397
- CO2 emissions and energy trajectories by scenario 399
- Increased shipping costs 404
- Mapping low-emissions fuel supplies 408
- Regional differences in production costs 408
- Alternative fuel refuelling infrastructure needs 412
- References 419
- Chapter 6: Strategic considerations 423
- Highlights 423
- 6.1 Policy dimensions 424
- 6.2 Secure and resilient supply chains 427
- Risk of supply shocks due to a lack of diversity of supply 429
- Monitoring supply chain diversity 429
- Examples of policy responses 431
- Direct support to domestic producers 431
- Co-ordinate stockpiling internationally 433
- Improve market data 434
- Risk of supply shocks due to shipping bottlenecks 434
- Monitoring chokepoints 434
- Examples of policy responses 435
- Support alternative trade routes 435
- Agree and uphold international maritime conventions 435
- Risks to the timely build-out of resilient infrastructure 436
- Monitoring the adequacy of investment 438
- Examples of policy responses 439
- Create demand 440
- Reduce project lead times 440
- Ensure availability of personnel 441
- 6.3 Affordable technologies and materials 441
- Risk of higher prices due to measures affecting trade or a lack of competition 444
- Monitoring prices and the factors that can raise them 445
- Examples of policy responses 445
- Co-ordinate with trading partners to facilitate trade 445
- Co-operate on standards to reduce non-tariff measures 446
- Provide timely and transparent cost data 447
- Risk of a lack of innovation 448
- Monitoring innovation progress 450
- Examples of policy responses 451
- Co-operate internationally on priority innovation challenges 451
- Support demonstration projects and share the resulting knowledge 452
- Target support to emerging technology gaps 453
- Risk of inefficient use of materials and equipment 454
- Monitoring material efficiency 454
- Examples of policy responses 457
- Use performance-based regulation and other incentives for material efficiency 457
- Incentivise repairs and more durable products 458
- Boost re-use and recycling rates 458
- 6.4 People-centred transitions 459
- Risk of low investment in emerging market supply chains 461
- Monitoring clean energy investment in EMDEs 461
- Examples of policy responses 462
- Design strategies to promote inward investment 462
- Agree and enshrine principles for responsible investment 463
- Provide regulatory assistance to EMDEs 464
- Build strategic partnerships 464
- Risk that transitions are not fair and inclusive 465
- Monitoring changes in regional economic activity and employment 466
- Examples of policy responses 467
- Support regional economic development 468
- Develop programmes to promote skills, retraining and job opportunities 468
- 6.5 Overarching strategic policy responses 469
- Well-designed industrial strategies 470
- Amplify local advantages and reduce barriers to competitiveness 471
- Remain flexible and experiment to sharpen policies 471
- Do not close off international competition 472
- Cultivate strategic partnerships 473
- International co-operation to reduce non-tariff measures 473
- Consider the whole value chain, starting with end-user demand 474
- Think long term 475
- Innovation 475
- Co-location and integration 479
- Supporting investment in emerging markets 482
- Shipping 485
- Co-ordinating a common vision of the future fuel value chain 485
- Involving a broad set of stakeholders 485
- Investing in an international bunkering system 486
- Creating demand for low-emissions shipping fuels 486
- Funding complementary measures to manage early-stage risk 487
- Developing clear and agreed international standards 487
- Data 489
- References 492
- Annex A – IEA’s Manufacturing and Trade model 501
- Methodology 501
- Scope 501
- Framework description 503
- Sets and indices 505
- Decision variables 505
- Inputs 505
- Demand by clean energy technology and material 505
- Industrial strategies and policies 507
- Trade databases 509
- Industrial strategies and policy packages 510
- Cost data 511
- Production costs 511
- Transport costs 514
- Trade costs 514
- Other inputs 515
- Existing manufacturing capacity 515
- Announced manufacturing capacity 515
- Results 516
- Manufacturing results 516
- Inter-regional trade results 517
- Levelised cost of production 517
- Other results 517
- Constraints 517
- Additional technical details 519
- Batteries 519
- Electric cars: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles 520
- Solar PV 520
- Wind 521
- Electrolysers 521
- Heat pumps 521
- Trade shipping routes modelling 522
- Shipping activity 523
- Data sources 523
- Current and future trade flows by clean energy technology 527
- Electric cars and batteries 527
- Solar PV 529
- Wind 531
- Electrolysers 533
- Heat pumps 534
- Annex B – Manufacturing analysis 535
- Industrial survey methodology 535
- Enabling indicators for manufacturing investments 537
- Annex C – Shipping decarbonisation 543
- Technologies for shipping decarbonisation 543
- Ports for alternative fuels exports 548
- Annex D – Definitions 550
- Glossary 550
- Abbreviations and acronyms 557
- Units of measure 560
- Currency conversions 561
- Regional groupings 562
- Annex E – References 565
