EU 2040 Climate Target: Contributions of the Energy Supply Sector

Table of Contents

• Contact 2
• Suggested citation 2
• Acknowledgements 2
• List of Figures 5
• List of Tables 5
• Abbreviations 6
• 1 Executive Summary 8
• The 2040 climate target 8
• Emission trends 8
• Implications of the 2040 target for the energy supply sector 8
• Key challenges 8
• Current relevant EU legislation 9
• Policies, measures and options to further reduce emissions in the energy supply sector 9
• Introduction and conclusion 10
• 2 Sectoral trends 12
• 2.1 Historical emission trends on the EU level 12
• 2.2 Projected emission trends on the EU level up to 2030 and 2040 13
• Historical and future trends in national projections 14
• 2.2.1 Historical trends 14
• 2.2.2 Future trends 19
• 2.3 Relationship to other sectors 20
• 2.4 Key challenges in this sector 21
• 2.4.1 Unprecedented RES-E expansion 21
• 2.4.2 Quick phase-out of coal-fired generation 21
• 2.4.3 Transition of natural gas-fired generation to climate-neutral energy carriers 22
• 2.4.4 Small and unclear role for nuclear power generation 22
• 2.4.5 Rapid ramp-up of hydrogen production capacities and transport and storage infrastructure 23
• 2.4.6 Rapid expansion of non-fossil fuel-based flexibility option 23
• 2.4.7 Targeted and cost-effective contribution of CO2 capture, transport and storage and waste incineration and direct air capture 24
• 2.4.8 Sizing down refineries and switching to Fischer-Tropsch-based refining 24
• 3 Sector contributions to the 2040 climate target 25
• 3.1 Current relevant EU legislation 25
• 3.1.1 Renewable energy deployment in electricity generation 25
• 3.1.2 Phase-out of fossil-fuel-based generation 27
• 3.1.3 Gas-fired generation units with targeted switch climate-neutral energy careers 29
• 3.1.4 Nuclear power generation units – life-time expansions and new plans for a domestic energy source? 30
• 3.1.5 Rapid ramp-up of hydrogen production capacities and transport and storage infrastructure 30
• 3.1.6 The role of non-fossil fuel flexibility options 32
• 3.1.7 Bioenergy, waste incineration, direct air capture and CO2 storage 33
• 3.2 Possible range of emissions and central energy sector elements in 2040 – and glancing towards 2050 34
• 3.2.1 Total GHG net emissions from the energy supply sector and GHG balance in the EC 2024 Impact Assessment 35
• 3.2.2 Total electricity demand 36
• 3.2.3 RES-based generation, shares and capacities 37
• 3.2.4 Installed fossil fuel generation capacity, generation and shares 40
• 3.2.5 Nuclear capacity and generation 41
• 3.2.6 Hydrogen production capacity, imports and total demand 44
• 4 How to achieve the necessary contributions: Discussion of possible policies, measures and options 46
• 5 References 48