This paper explores the past contribution of the energy supply sector 1 to already achieved emission reductions as well as the contribution of the energy sector to the upcoming 2040 cli- mate target and what it takes to achieve the related emission reductions. [...] This paper explores the necessary steps in terms of the transformation of the energy supply sector towards climate neutrality, and where the sector needs to stand by 2040, with regards to both emissions and central sector elements, but also the necessary legislative framework. [...] The directive defines the overarching EU target for renewable energies and contains rules to ensure the use of renewable energies in the transport sector and in the heating and cooling sector. [...] By setting overarching tar- gets and further reducing barriers, for example in the area of approval procedures, the RED will remain a central element and driver of the expansion of renewable energies in the energy sector in the future. [...] The RED will remain a central element and driver of the expansion of renewable energies in the energy sector in the future.
Authors
- Pages
- 57
- Published in
- Germany
Table of Contents
- Contact 2
- Suggested citation 2
- Acknowledgements 2
- List of Figures 5
- List of Tables 5
- Abbreviations 6
- 1 Executive Summary 8
- The 2040 climate target 8
- Emission trends 8
- Implications of the 2040 target for the energy supply sector 8
- Key challenges 8
- Current relevant EU legislation 9
- Policies, measures and options to further reduce emissions in the energy supply sector 9
- Introduction and conclusion 10
- 2 Sectoral trends 12
- 2.1 Historical emission trends on the EU level 12
- 2.2 Projected emission trends on the EU level up to 2030 and 2040 13
- Historical and future trends in national projections 14
- 2.2.1 Historical trends 14
- 2.2.2 Future trends 19
- 2.3 Relationship to other sectors 20
- 2.4 Key challenges in this sector 21
- 2.4.1 Unprecedented RES-E expansion 21
- 2.4.2 Quick phase-out of coal-fired generation 21
- 2.4.3 Transition of natural gas-fired generation to climate-neutral energy carriers 22
- 2.4.4 Small and unclear role for nuclear power generation 22
- 2.4.5 Rapid ramp-up of hydrogen production capacities and transport and storage infrastructure 23
- 2.4.6 Rapid expansion of non-fossil fuel-based flexibility option 23
- 2.4.7 Targeted and cost-effective contribution of CO2 capture, transport and storage and waste incineration and direct air capture 24
- 2.4.8 Sizing down refineries and switching to Fischer-Tropsch-based refining 24
- 3 Sector contributions to the 2040 climate target 25
- 3.1 Current relevant EU legislation 25
- 3.1.1 Renewable energy deployment in electricity generation 25
- 3.1.2 Phase-out of fossil-fuel-based generation 27
- 3.1.3 Gas-fired generation units with targeted switch climate-neutral energy careers 29
- 3.1.4 Nuclear power generation units – life-time expansions and new plans for a domestic energy source? 30
- 3.1.5 Rapid ramp-up of hydrogen production capacities and transport and storage infrastructure 30
- 3.1.6 The role of non-fossil fuel flexibility options 32
- 3.1.7 Bioenergy, waste incineration, direct air capture and CO2 storage 33
- 3.2 Possible range of emissions and central energy sector elements in 2040 – and glancing towards 2050 34
- 3.2.1 Total GHG net emissions from the energy supply sector and GHG balance in the EC 2024 Impact Assessment 35
- 3.2.2 Total electricity demand 36
- 3.2.3 RES-based generation, shares and capacities 37
- 3.2.4 Installed fossil fuel generation capacity, generation and shares 40
- 3.2.5 Nuclear capacity and generation 41
- 3.2.6 Hydrogen production capacity, imports and total demand 44
- 4 How to achieve the necessary contributions: Discussion of possible policies, measures and options 46
- 5 References 48
