cover image: Conservative comeback: Is there a path back to power by 2029?

Conservative comeback: Is there a path back to power by 2029?

1 Oct 2024

Public indifference to Tory-Reform crossover The public are relatively narrowly more likely to say that Reform overtaking the Conservatives as the largest party on the right would be a bad thing for the UK (38 per cent) than a good thing (29 per cent) Interestingly, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters are significantly more likely than Conservative voters to think a Reform-Conservative cross. [...] This could push 7% of 2024 Conservatives to the The risk of appealing purely to Reform voters is that Liberal Democrats and 2% to Labour… this could deter the other pools of current and potential Conservative voters. [...] Even if the Conservatives manage to reverse two If Labour stay thirds of the 2019-2024 Conservative to Labour If Labour are weakstrong… swing, pursuing a strategy of ‘uniting the right’ could keep the Conservatives in second place at the next election. [...] It is not unreasonable to think of the Liberal Democrats blocking a Conservative victory in much the same way a large tranche of SNP seats in Scotland has the potential to stand in the way of Labour. [...] I think they lost an awful lot of goodwill due to obviously the Partygate situation, but I think the bottom line is lack of trust from a lot of people” Tracy, Stockton The need for change Even Conservative 2024 voters think that the party needs to change a lot if they want to win the next General Election.

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United Kingdom

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