The Trump Administration's tariffs created a wedge between mutually beneficial trades between China's producers and U.S. consumers. Moving production to nearby Vietnam allows firms to jump the tariff wall. Within Vietnam, cities closer to China with respect to distance and industrial mix grow faster and attract more FDI. They are increasingly consuming renewable power to fuel their local economy. We study the local air quality gains and the carbon dioxide emissions reductions associated with the growth in regional trade. Chinaβs regional trade increases have important implications for the rise of the system of cities across Asia.
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- Acknowledgements & Disclosure
- We thank Pablo Fajgelbaum, Tri Hoang, Robert Huang, Nghuiem Huynh, Remi Jedwab, Eunjee Kwon, Hou Li, Philipp Ludwig, Ferdinando Monte, Albert Saiz, Vinicios SantβAnna, Ashley Vicary, Roman Zarate, and participants at the Vietnam Symposium in Global Economic Issues (Oct. 2023), MIT Center for Real Estate Seminar (Nov. 2023), Syracuse University Economics Department Seminar (Mar. 2024), AREURA National Conference (May 2024), NUS-MIT Asia Real Estate Workshop (Jul. 2024), and UEA North America Meeting (Sep. 2024), for their insightful comments and feedback. All errors are ours. Wen-Chi Liao acknowledges the funding support from the NUS Humanities and Social Sciences Seed Fund (HSSF-2302-P03), and Siqi Zheng acknowledges the funding support from the MIT Asia Real Estate Initiative. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w33126
- Pages
- 52
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES 1
- HOW THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR ACCELERATED URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRESS IN NORTHERN VIETNAM 1
- Matthew E. Kahn Wen-Chi Liao Siqi Zheng 1
- Working Paper 33126 httpwww.nber.orgpapersw33126 1
- NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02138 November 2024 1
- Matthew E. Kahn Department of Economics University of Southern California 3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian KAP Hall 300 Los Angeles CA 90089-0253 and NBER kahnmeusc.edu 2
- Wen-Chi Liao Department of Real Estate National University of Singapore Singapore wliaonus.edu.sg 2
- Siqi Zheng Sustainable Urbanization Lab Center for Real Estate Department of Urban Studies and Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 sqzhengmit.edu 2
- 1. Introduction 3
- 2. Background and Data Construction 5
- 3. Testing for Asymmetric Urban Growth Within Vietnam 9
- ππππππ π π πΏπΏ 10
- ππππππ π½π½ π½π½ ππππππ ππππππ ππ πΌπΌ ππ ππ ππ 2 11
- πππΉπΉπΉπΉ 11
- π½π½ π½π½ 13
- π½π½ π½π½ 14
- 4. Is the Trade-War Good for the Environment 16
- ππππππππ π½π½ π½π½ lnπΉπΉπππΌπΌ π½π½ lnπΉπΉπππΌπΌ ππππππ ππ πΌπΌ ππ ππ ππ 3 16
- ππππππππ π½π½ π½π½ lnππ π½π½ lnππ πΆπΆπΆπΆπΆπΆ ππππππ ππ πΌπΌ ππ ππ ππ 4 18
- πΆπΆπΆπΆπΆπΆ π½π½ π½π½ ππ ππππππ ππ πΌπΌ ππ ππ ππ 5 19
- CN Dist. TRF Low FDI and 20
- TRF CN Dist. Low FDI 20
- ππ ππ ππ ππ 20
- 5. Conclusion 22
- References 24
- Figures and Tables 29
- ππππππ π½π½ π½π½ πΉπΉπ·π·π π π‘π‘ πΉπΉ 34
- ππ πΏπΏπΏπΏπΏπΏπππΉπΉπΉπΉ πΉπΉ 34
- ππππππ ππ πΌπΌ ππ ππ ππ πΉπΉ 34
- ππ π½π½ 34
- Appendix Figures and Tables 46
- ππππππ π½π½ π½π½ ππππππ π½π½ ππππππ πΏπΏπΏπΏπΏπΏπππΉπΉπΉπΉ π½π½ ππππππ πΉπΉπ·π·π π π‘π‘ 49
- πΏπΏπΏπΏπΏπΏπππΉπΉπΉπΉ π½π½ ππππππ πΉπΉ ππππππ ππ πΌπΌ ππ ππ ππ 49
- πΉπΉ πΉπΉ π½π½ πΉπΉ 49
