cover image: REPORT - Why are the latest net migration figures not a reliable guide to future trends?

REPORT - Why are the latest net migration figures not a reliable guide to future trends?

9 Sep 2024

UK PAGE 3 REPORT: Why are the latest net migration figures not a reliable guide to future trends? The main model is based on the following assumptions (further detail can be found in Appendix A): • Work migration declines following the ban on care workers’ dependants and the decrease in health and care main applicants that took place in the first half of 2024. [...] The fact that emigration adjusts based on previous immigration means that the impact of the policy changes is much larger in the short run than the long run. [...] Net migration in the longer run Using assumptions about the level of immigration and the rate of emigration, we can project long-run net migration in a ‘steady state’. [...] The model presented in this report suggests that the largest category affecting the projected level of net migration in the coming years is the work route. [...] Students For example, for the 2022 arrival cohort (and all subsequent years) used the % of the cohort that left the UK after 1 year from the 2021 arrival cohort, the % of the remaining that left after 2 years from the 2020 arrival cohort, etc.
Pages
16
Published in
United Kingdom

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