In October, China and India reached an agreement on patrolling a stretch of their long-disputed shared border. The deal brought an end, for the time being, to a four-year standoff in the high mountains of the Himalayas that had severely strained ties between the two countries. It also allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet in Russia and hold talks for the first time in five years. In 2020, a bloody confrontation in the Galwan Valley had left dozens of soldiers dead and led to a deep freeze in bilateral relations between the two Asian giants. The Indian public fumed at what it saw as Chinese aggression, and Modi’s government canceled direct flights between the countries and banned the social media app TikTok, among other measures meant to punish China. Now, many analysts see the possibility of a reset and a return to normal ties. But China and India have no desirable “normal” status quo to return to. Challenges abound in the bilateral relationship, and China’s ambitions continue to circumscribe India’s ability to act at the regional and global levels. Many flash points remain along the border and could be reactivated at any time by Xi’s aggressive regime. Although Modi has tried harder than his predecessors to hold a strong line against Chinese expansionism, India’s economy remains hugely dependent on China. Even as India’s exports to China have dropped somewhat in the last five years, its imports from China have ballooned. India relies on China for sophisticated technology, such as personal computers, laptops, and the components used in making telecommunications equipment and mobile phones. When the Indian government moved in August 2023 to institute licensing controls on the import of laptops and personal computing devices in the hope of stemming the influx of Chinese technology, a swift backlash from Indian industry groups forced it to scrap its plans.
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Table of Contents
- The Fatal Flaw in India’s China Strategy 1
- Originally Published Foreign Affairs Published on Nov 18, 2024 1
- From “Chindia” to “India First” 2
- Blowing hot and cold 3
- The imperative of economic security 3
- Authors 5
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