Yury Zuenko, Ludmila Chernoivanova, Alex Vdovin, and Elena Ustinova - Saffron cod fluctuations in the Japan Sea: an evidence of match/mismatch hypothesis

2 However, this dependence reflects only the difference between two states of the cod stock: - the high stock before the late 1980s and 0 - the low stock after the late 1980s 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Relative population fecundity, 1011 eggs Within the first period the recruits-spawners dependence was negative, and within the second period it was 1965-1987 1988-2004 insignificant. [...] On average, the mass spawning of saffron cod occurs in early January 100% 50% 0% post-spawning (VI, VI-II) 1970-1980s spawning (V, V-VI) pre-spawning (IV, IV-V) 1990-2000s Mean for 1954-2009 dynamics of maturing for the saffron cod in Peter the Great Bay (bars) and dynamics of the portion (%) of pre-spawning and spawning females (stages IV, IV-V, V,V-VI) averaged for the 1970-1980s and 1990-2000s. [...] Timing of the spawning peak dependence on SST in Vladivostok Mean month SST anomalies in January of 1954-2008 (r = -0.66) in Vladivostok in January 100 Shift to earlier spawning Short period of late in the late 1980s spawning in early 2000s Shift to earlier spawning in the late 1980s 30 50 0 0 -30 1970-1980s 1990-2000s Portion (%) of the saffron cod spawning females (stage V) Year-to-year changes. [...] timing of the end of The latter develops under SST about 3oC, and therefore its timing spring phytoplankton depends on SST anomaly: the higher SST, the earlier the spring 120 bloom in the Amur bloom (r = -0.84; 1oC causes the shift 25 days). [...] Schemes of the saffron cod stock formation in 1990s and 2000s Results: winter warming in the Japan Sea Winter warming was observed in the late 1980s both in the spawning area of saffron cod and in the whole Japan Sea.