Bottom Line
- Japan’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) contains several groundbreaking commitments, including plans to deploy long-range counterstrike capabilities and to raise defense spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product.
- A slim-but-significant majority of Japan’s public now seemingly supports efforts to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities, a political consensus once nearly unthinkable.
- The United States, India, Taiwan, and others that share Japan’s concern about military aggression from China, North Korea, and Russia have welcomed Japan’s NSS.
- Some countries in the Indo-Pacific, including South Korea and certain Southeast Asian nations, have expressed mixed reactions to the NSS, as some still harbor distrust toward Japanese military power due to the historical memory of the Second World War.
- China and North Korea continue to cultivate anti-Japan sentiment within their domestic populations and within other countries in the region.
A revolution for Japanese security policy seems to be underway. With the release of its new National Security Strategy (NSS), Japan has sparked headlines claiming that the country is “
abandoning pacifism” and committing to its “
largest military buildup since World War II.” Certainly, the release of these strategic documents is an impactful moment, setting Tokyo on a course to dramatically increase its defense budget and capabilities, directly affecting Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and security relationships around the Indo-Pacific region.
However, do these new documents truly represent a turning point for Japanese security policies? For the past ten years, since the second administration of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, commentators have spoken of Japan “
flexing its military muscles” and “
abandoning pacifism.” To be sure, the NSS contains several groundbreaking commitments and policies. Yet, it is better understood as a culmination and formalization of long-changing processes, rather than a novel pivot in priorities. Nevertheless, across the Indo-Pacific, Tokyo is being met with a range of reactions motivated by two feuding priorities: the historical memory of Japanese atrocities during World War II and the current fear of Chinese military aggression. That Tokyo is even willing to risk such regional backlash highlights Japan’s deep commitments on defense and the US alliance, and reflects a near-unprecedented public mandate for a stronger national security.
What the Documents Say
Japan’s new defense vision is laid out in three strategic documents: a
National Security Strategy,
National Defense Strategy (formerly known as the National Defense Program Guidelines), and the
Defense Buildup Program (formerly known as the Medium-Term Defense Program). In conjunction, the documents commit Japan to gradually increase its defense spending to
meet 2 percent of gross domestic product, mirroring the NATO target for defense spending. Within that vision would come 5-year investments of $7 billion in cyber warfare, $7 billion in space, and $6 billion towards a combined sixth-generation fighter aircraft development program with the United Kingdom and Italy, known as “Tempest.”
The highest profile investments in the documents are those for “
counterstrike” or “counter-attack” capabilities, referring to the acquisition of long-range missiles capable of hitting ships or ground-based missiles from potentially 1,500–3,000 kilometers away. This would be a significant upgrade from Japan’s current supply of missiles, which are limited to a range of a few hundred kilometers and are predominantly designed for short-range defense. The documents correctly identify that Tokyo’s current missile arsenal and questions about the legality of so-called “left-of-launch” (striking an adversary’s missile before it can be launched itself) strikes have created
gaps in Japanese deterrence.
