WARM THIS WINTER - Estimating the benefits and costs of the campaign proposals

This research briefing provides estimates of the costs of different measures proposed by the campaign alongside the potential benefits that could accrue to the households, the government, and the wider economy by implementing the campaign’s recommendations, relative to business as usual. [...] We provide estimates of the costs of different measures proposed by the campaign alongside the potential benefits that could accrue to the households, the government, and the wider economy by implementing the campaign’s recommendations. [...] The paper estimates the gap between the average bill under Cornwall Insight’s base-case forecast for the default price cap (the average energy bill that would occur in the absence of the EPG) and the EPG unit costs for each year of the policy, estimating that the policy would have cost £30.74bn in its first year and £58.05bn in its second year to support 29m households.d Building on this analysis,. [...] The scale of these impacts, relative to the positive employment and GDP impacts cited for the retrofit and renewable energy campaign proposals, suggests a good potential to offset the reduction in GDP and employment in the oil and gas sector, provided that the correct resources are also directed to retraining and reskilling. [...] On the other hand, the current spike in prices and profits in the sector could allow the use of the elevated windfall tax revenue to fund other parts of the campaign proposals.