EU and China between De-Risking and Cooperation: Scenarios by 2035

The first issue on the docket is whether there will be a slowdown in China’s economy over the next decade and how this would impact the “reorientation of trade along geopolitical lines” observed since the onset of the war in Ukraine. [...] • Having awakened to the need to overhaul its S&T governance to reduce strategic dependencies, Europe takes steps to bolster its R&D capabilities and curb the brain drain and the exodus of start-up entrepreneurs to the United States. [...] With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the back of everyone’s mind, the spectre of a conflict with China prompts public and private stakeholders to reassess partnerships, leading to a widening gap in the collaboration of innovation systems. [...] • Along with Germany, France spearheads efforts in 2024 to breathe new life into Europe’s partnership with China, including in the realm of science and technology—an opportune time to do so given that 2024 marks the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between France Report n° 126 • 29 and China, the China-France Year of Culture and Tourism, and the year of the Paris Olympic Games. [...] Recommendations Over and above these imperfect and over-schematic explorations of the future, the following points should be borne in mind for the EU in the short term: Agriculture is at the heart of the EU’s strategic autonomy, not only in terms of food sovereignty, but also in terms of industry and energy.