If the West Cuts Aid to Ukraine, Russia Will Win. If the West Leans In, Ukraine Can Win.
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If the West Cuts Aid to Ukraine, Russia Will Win. If the West Leans In, Ukraine Can Win.

21 November 2023

Summary

The positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate. Ukraine can still win. But Russia can win, too, if Western support is cut. Western support for Ukraine is preventing Russia from conducting large-scale mechanized advances and bombing campaigns, but it is not currently enough to offset Russia’s advantages in size, manpower, and military potential and allow Ukraine to win. Curtailing or cutting aid to Ukraine will at best allow Russia to make significant battlefield gains and at worst allow it to take total control of Ukraine. So long as Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks he can win, he will continue to pursue the complete conquest of Ukraine. Showing Putin that the West is committed to helping Ukraine win by giving it what it needs to conduct successful large-scale advances is the fastest way to end this war.

Published in
United States of America

Creators/Authors

Frederick W. Kagan
Senior Fellow and Director of the Critical Threats Project

Tags

ukraine russia russia-ukraine us-ukraine assistance

Topics