cover image: Assessing the 'Trump Risk' to European Security

20.500.12592/42iiy4k

Assessing the 'Trump Risk' to European Security

10 Oct 2024

This report, produced in collaboration between The New Diplomacy Project and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, examines the potential risks to European security posed by a second term of U.S. President Donald J. Trump. The authors outline several scenarios that could unfold if Trump is re-elected in November 2024, emphasizing concerns over NATO's future, diplomatic relations, and the possible withdrawal of U.S. military and intelligence support from Europe. The report begins by highlighting Trump’s record during his first presidency, including his demands for increased NATO spending, threats to withdraw from NATO, and his actions toward the Russo-Ukrainian war. The study identifies six key risks: undermining NATO's Article 5 commitments, a breakdown in diplomatic communication, the withdrawal of U.S. military assets from Europe, the loss of U.S. intelligence sharing, the introduction of tariffs and the collapse of the WTO, and potential geopolitical shifts related to China and Taiwan. Specific recommendations are made for European countries, urging them to preemptively bolster defense spending, develop joint defense initiatives, and prepare for a possible recalibration of U.S.-Europe relations under another Trump administration.
china ukraine russia diplomacy international relations tariffs nato european security wto taiwan defense spending intelligence sharing article 5 u.s. foreign policy trump presidency military assets

Authors

Sam Goodman, Jade McGlynn

Pages
22
Published in
United Kingdom

Table of Contents

Related Topics

All