This report, produced in collaboration between The New Diplomacy Project and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, examines the potential risks to European security posed by a second term of U.S. President Donald J. Trump. The authors outline several scenarios that could unfold if Trump is re-elected in November 2024, emphasizing concerns over NATO's future, diplomatic relations, and the possible withdrawal of U.S. military and intelligence support from Europe.
The report begins by highlighting Trump’s record during his first presidency, including his demands for increased NATO spending, threats to withdraw from NATO, and his actions toward the Russo-Ukrainian war. The study identifies six key risks: undermining NATO's Article 5 commitments, a breakdown in diplomatic communication, the withdrawal of U.S. military assets from Europe, the loss of U.S. intelligence sharing, the introduction of tariffs and the collapse of the WTO, and potential geopolitical shifts related to China and Taiwan.
Specific recommendations are made for European countries, urging them to preemptively bolster defense spending, develop joint defense initiatives, and prepare for a possible recalibration of U.S.-Europe relations under another Trump administration.
Authors
- Pages
- 22
- Published in
- United Kingdom
Table of Contents
- Defence spending and troop deployments 3
- Defence procurement 5
- Reliance on US defence capabilities 6
- Cyber 6
- Intelligence sharing 7
- 2. European Security under a first term Trump Administration 7
- NATO Defence Spending 7
- Threatening to withdraw from NATO 8
- Withdrawing US troops from Germany 8
- Freezing of military aid to Ukraine 8
- Threats to withdraw intelligence sharing as a result of Huawei 8
- Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal 9
- Introducing tariffs on European goods 9
- 3. Risks to European security a second term Trump Presidency might present 10
- Risk One the undermining of NATOs Article 5 treaty commitment 10
- Risk Two a breakdown in diplomatic communication 10
- Risk Three US withdrawal of troops and military assets from Europe 11
- Risk Four the withdrawal of US intelligence cooperation 11
- Risk Five the introduction of tariffs and the collapse of the WTO 12
- Risk Six a PRC invasion or embargo of Taiwan 13
- The United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability. 13
- 4. How will a second term Trump Presidency impact Russias war on Ukraine 14
- Russia Wants More 15
- Misunderstanding Russias War Aims 15
- Ukrainian and European Opposition 15
- Domestic and International Reactions 15
- Continued Lethal Aid 16
- Strategic Ambiguity and Diplomatic Leverage 16
- Pressure from Allies 16
- Domestic Political Pressure 16
- What can European policymakers do to pre-empt and mitigate these risks 17
- RECOMMENDATIONS 17
- Recommendation One shoring up Europes defence spending 17
- Recommendation Two offering NATO use of a UK RAF Base 18
- Recommendation Three a private NATO-led study examining the impact of a US exit on Article 5 18
- Recommendation Four developing and deepening shared defence capabilities 18
- Recommendation Five protecting diplomatic communications 18
- Recommendation Six alternative areas of cooperation 19
- Recommendation Seven deepening ties with emerging powers 19
- Recommendation Eight aligning with the US on China policy 19
- Recommendation Nine guaranteeing the defence of Ukraine 19
- Recommendation Ten reviewing the independence of the UKs nuclear deterrence 20
- Recommendation Eleven protecting intelligence sharing 20
- Sam Goodman 20
- Dr Jade McGlynn 20
- Russias War and Memory Makers The Politics of the Past in Putins Russia 20
- NewDiplomacyUK 21
